Overton Window vs. Ratchet

The New Right, whatever they want to call themselves, is obsessed with a few key ideas. One of the most prominent of those ideas is the Overton Window.

The Overton Window is the idea that at any time there exists a range of acceptable policy options and unacceptable policy options. According to the New Right, the Overton Window almost always shifts left. In other words, progressive policies slowly become more acceptable, and conservative policies slowly become more extreme.

An extreme version of this view posits the existence of a ratchet effect. In other words, once the Overton Window shifts left, you cannot shift it right.

Naturally, this differs from the view expressed in the United 93 Election. That viewpoint holds that it is possible to shift the Overton Window right, and that is what the Administration is trying to do.

On the front page of the USA Today, the headline reads: Koch pumps up Trump agenda. Few things can be more reassuring to the administration than the prospect of the Koch brothers joining the cause. Specifically, the brothers are supporting overarching tax reform.

Nevertheless, the prospect of such tax reform and deficit reduction and increased military spending smacks of magical thinking. Simply put, it isn't possible, not even for Trump.

WannaCry and Botnets

Evidently, ever since the WannaCry killswitch domain was registered, botnets have been attacking the site, trying to take it down. This is interesting because it is difficult to understand the motive behind such attacks. Are the people operating these botnets really Joker like figures, bent on causing maximum chaos? Or do they have some other motive?

Only time will tell.

Useful Rules for Evaluating a News Article

The Washington Post and New York Times have been blanketing the news cycle with stories attacking Trump and the Trump administration.

I find myself in the awkward position of not liking the man, but liking many of his appointments. In any case, I think many conservatives can agree on one thing: the media is over doing it, and harming itself in the process.

The Federalist has a neat little list of criteria for evaluating news stories. I suggest you make use of it.

Article Bounty

Here at the Tangential Dispatch, we are interested in covering the recent cyber attack. Sadly, we're not experts on the topic. So, to remedy that short coming, we are offering a bounty for your content,

If you have some special insight into what happened, we want to hear from you. Please submit a brief  but informative article to us at kindlycallmegod@gmail.com, and we will publish your submission. Sadly, however, we have shallow pockets.

Still, we'll be offering bounties for your content. Every week we'll select one post and reward it with a $20 bounty. Future bounties will be rewarded by a jury of previous users. So, please, feel free to comment and contribute. 

Together we can create a meaningful platform for serious investigation.  

Ransomware

Ransomware is nothing new. Neal Stephenson wrote one of his worst novels on the topic. A few years ago, a school I worked for lost months worth of files because we were attacked and hadn't backed up our files. It really sucked to lose months worth of planning, but maybe something more is going on.

Over at NEO-NEOCON, there is speculation about just who Marcus Hutchins is. We face, I think, a serious dilemma. The most important thing to keep in mind is Snyder's advice to remain calm when the unthinkable happens. This exploit is just a harbinger of things to come. What needs to happen is a real investigation into what happened.

For the next few weeks, the Tangential Dispatch will be devoting most of its time to covering this latest Ransomware attack.

What we need to combat cyber attacks is what we already have: a relatively decentralized system. What we don't need to combat cyber attacks is a more centralized system.

Establish a Private Life

Timothy Snyder in On Tyranny has provided us all with twenty important lessons to keep in mind. My particular favorite is Number 14: Establish a Private Life. Many of us, perhaps myself included, are guilty of spending too little time protecting ourselves online.

The recent wave of ransom ware that swept Asia and Europe and barely gave America a miss is a case and point. People online are trying to private public. Certainly some brave souls fight against this trend, but major firms have an interest in acquiring as much data as possible. And some will use underhanded methods to acquire it.

There is a simple solution to this problem. Instead of engaging in an encryption decryption arms race, we should simply live non digital lives. What do I mean by that? I mean forsaking places like Reddit and online forums and engaging in local politics.

 A civic life lived offline is worth far more than a civic life fed by upvotes and downvotes.

Not A Trump Supporter

I find myself in a difficult position. I am not a Democrat. I am not a Trump supporter. I am not a civic nationalist. I am not an ethnic nationalist.

I believe in institutions. Truth be told, I have my doubts about American institutions. I think past tinkering has already placed us in an untenable position, but I believe that we must respect those institutions nevertheless. Why?

Because those institutions are the product of our liberal democracy. We liberal democrats, we classical liberals, must keep that simple fact in mind. Colin Powell had his famous Pottery Barn rule for Iraq: You break it, You bought it.

The same applies in our present crisis. We broke it. Now we have to fix it, whilst respecting the institutions that have made us a Shining City on a Hill for the world at large.

No matter the man, we should never join ourselves to a cult of personality.

I believe our institutions are strong enough to weather the storm, especially if the average citizen defends and safeguards them.

Reddit and Politics

I've reached a simple conclusion, one that many people have probably already reached on their own.

Reddit is the hemlock of civil society.

In real life people are atomizing themselves. Online people are Balkanizing themselves. Truth be told, this is a false dichotomy. A lot of things are going on, but I believe people are devaluing themselves and finding values in tribes.

Reddit is a platform, a battleground, for digital tribes. Reddit allows these digital tribes to engage in rhetorical combat. Upvote allies. Downvote enemies. This is nothing new.

I belong to the first generation that took the internet for granted. Sure, it was expensive and frustrating, but you could always count on a connection. But the generation before us were the true trail blazers of the internet. They were the first trolls, the first sock puppets, the first tribes.

Centuries ago, Rousseau answered a simple question with a simple answer. Has civilization benefited humanity? No, it hasn't, he answered. A simplistic answer, but at least he has the guts to bite the bullet.

When asked about the French Revolution, Zhou Enlai said it was too early to tell. Perhaps he's right.

Astrill Still in Business

A few months ago, around the time of Chinese New Year, the government decided to really go after VPNs.It go so bad, that I decided not to renew my subscription for an entire year.

I'm happy to say that things have gotten back to normal.I still have the occasional difficulty using Astrill on my iPad, but it is great on my laptop.

Even if you're not in a country that censors the internet, Astrill is still a great investment.I love Astrill for one simple reason: it lets me watch,listen or read pretty much anything I want.

When my subscription ends in July, I will happily buy a one year subscription.

Music Monday: The Chopstick Brothers

This week, surprise, surprise, The Chopstick Brothers 筷子兄弟 (kuaizi xiongdi), remain at the top of the Baidu Music charts with the song Little Apple 小苹果 (xiao pingguo). Just as little can imply cute in English, 小 can imply cute in Chinese.And that's how I interpret the song.

Other than that, there isn't much to say about this song. It's annoying. I feel like I've been hearing it for years. In fact the song isn't that old. It came out on their album 老男孩之猛龙过江 which happens to also be a movie, one I have never seen.

I'm sure there's much more to say on the subject, but you won't hear it from me. Curious, and being something of a sadist, I did explore their work some. It wasn't really time well spent, in my opinion.

Next week, we'll be looking at a newish release by Wang Faye, which is infinitely more interesting than 小苹果． 
 

Astrill

Astrill is completely fucked. Now, if that were completely true, I wouldn't be writing this. But most days I don't use a computer. I just make do with my iPad. And Astrill is completely fucked on that.

Frankly, it's quite frustrating, dealing with this bullshit. I cannot begin to explain the just how large of an inconvenience the Great Firewall is. Now, when it was merely an inconvenience, it was sufferable. But it is no longer merely an inconvenience. It really does make one think about moving.

That said, I've gone a whole damn year without a VPN. It isn't really necessary,just like internet isn't really necessary, but the world is so much more damn convenient with it.

All I can say is this, I hope someone is developing new means of circumventing the Great Firewall. For me, it is an inconvenience, but for other people, for people that can't afford to shell out a $100 for a product that only sometimes works, it really is a problem.

That's what I think China is doing. They're attacking services like this to dissuade marginal users from using them. If that's not what they're doing, that's what they should be doing.

Some people, regardless of China's aspirations concerning cyber sovereignty, will find ways of accessing the wider web. By mounting sporadic attacks on VPNs, China inconveniences these users, but doesn't really force them seek out new technologies. At the same time, these attacks me people with upcoming renewals rethink those renewals. That's exactly what happened to me. Astrill became unusable right when my expiration date was approaching, so I said, fuck it; I don't need a VPN.

Really, what we need is satellite links for laptops. Elon Musk, make it happen. I'd love to see the CPC block that.     

Back

I'm surprised to be writing this. I'd quite forgotten this blog of mine. I'm surprised to see certain posts have been so popular. Needless to say, I've changed quite a bit since I first started this blog. And now that I am contemplating restarting it, I think it necessary to chuck a few posts, indeed the majority of posts, down the memory hole.

I won't destroy these posts completely. Consider it an edit. In the future the blog will focus much more time and energy on the Chinese language. I'm still rather incompetent at it, but at least I'm experienced in my incompetence.

In any case, I hope you enjoy my return. I know I will.

Moving

To my dismay and trepidation, I will be moving in a few weeks. I'll either move to Nanjing, Shanghai, or a new apartment in Wuhu. My plans, of yet, are uncertain.

In many respects, this year, my third year in country, was my true sophomoric year. I made the mistake of forgetting where I was. I won't forget again. Not again. So let new adventures start.

Astrill for iPad

So, things at this blog are slowing down. One of the reasons for that is my old macbook died on me. I decided to scale down to an iPad instead of buying a new lap top. That itself hasn't been a prolem. Pacing and writing on an iPad is pretty enjoyable. The real reason for the slow down is a lack of reliable VPNs for the iPad.

I've been using Astrill because they've never done me wrong, but the iPad app is far from ideal. It's sluggish and a lot of times, especially on weekends it simply won't connect.

In any case, I hoping to sort things out soon; I'll be sure to let you know if I find a better VPN for iPad.

North Korea

Is all the crap coming from North Korea for domestic consumption? Probably, but who is the target audience? Is it the average North Korean? Perhaps. Is it for others within the leadership? The selectorate? How big is the North Korean selectorate? Is this kid just insane?

One of the fall back arguments against DPRK having Nukes, or at least Iran having Nukes, is that they're irrational. 

I disagree. This tantrum isn't meant for domestic consumption. It's meant to instill uncertainty into the  minds of analysts. This is rational behavior. It's risky, but the risk has to be taken. The American response has been satisfactory. All DPRK needs is the US to say and show that it takes the threat seriously. The US responded ideally. Why it's almost as though we've given the Nutcase face sending B-2s to pratice killing him.

And so, let's just hope he isn't insane.

The Two Percent

Interesting factoid of the week, throughout history only two percent of Chinese have been able to write Literary Chinese. In 1996 only two percent of Chinese pursued post secondary eduction. Sometimes it seems that things aren't changing, but they are.

First Cider and Mead

So here are our first bottles. Ginger Mead to the left Simple Cider to the right. They were both open aired fermented for ten days. The Mead is nice and sweet. The cider quite crisp. So far they have met mixed reviews, but at least everyone was willing and able to sample one of the products.

I'm serving as test subject. Some aren't quite convinced this is safe. I suppose I ought to show you some in the glass.

The motive is water purification...

The Mead is one grated ginger root, one part honey, five parts water. The cider is fresh apple juice with slices of apple for their wild yeast.

As I said, the mead is very sweet; you can tell immediately from the nose hit you get. But there is a distinct ginger flavor that gives it some warmth. I think I prefer it to the cider. It is definitely easy drinking; assuming, of course, it doesn't kill me.

The cider smells of vinegar. In fact, we thought it had turned on us, but our cousin says it's fine. It has a yeast taste at any rate. Something Ping finds disagreeable, but our cousin prefers it; it tastes more like typical alcohol. Best drunk in moderation, I think. I hope it will improve with age.

The next cider won't be fermented as long before bottling.

Overall, I'm surprised how well they both turned out. There is still a strawberry mead in the works. That will got into bottle as soon as I make a spare.

Short China

I can understand why people are short China, perhaps they're even in the right. But being here I couldn't care less about the figures.

The Chinese, some of them, are the sort of people you hope will succeed.

They're the type of people that devour an entire book in one sitting to keep from paying; and that strikes me as the important bit.

Yes, numbers aren't looking good, but then they shouldn't be; the economy isn't good and there's a leadership transition to consider.

I imagine leadership transitions are always a slow time of sorts for China relative to others. If I were an empiricist, I'd bother to read some graphs and figure out for sure. But, then we'd have to agree to trust the data or on some means of adjusting it.

So, I'll make an argument from axioms instead. The leadership in power is only maintained in power by delivering a mix of public and private goods to their selectorate. China has a huge selectorate; hence it's success despite the form of government. Because of the large size, a significant amount of the leadership's bid comes in the form of quasi-public goods like 4,000 rmb pensions for Civil Servants. But another significant form of private good is access to cheap money.

During a leadership transition that access dries up. The old leadership is transitioning from authority to power; they don't need to bribe people to govern, they just need to bribe enough people to maintain influence. So, they allow the crusaders at the People's Bank of China to tighten oversight. This makes cheap money a hard thing to find or force.

But the new leadership will have to turn on the spigot anew, as surely as the Emperor prays to Heaven for his rice.

Mind and Body

I read a rather disappointing piece in The Spectator just now on celibacy within the Church. It was disappointing because it was too dualist, simplistic, in perspective. That sort of thing is fine for Descartes, but it is not really what theologians believe.

Body and mind are not held as separate things. It has been a long time since I read theology, and even if it were fresh in my mind, I doubt the distinctions would be rather illuminating.

The author went on to claim that celibacy was seen as the easiest form of self-denial. I don't thing that's quite true. In the Orthodox tradition celibacy has always been considered a form of martyrdom; yes, easy insofar as it is available to all where ever their time or place. But in no way easy in the demands made on body and mind.

But the author is correct in general. There is a Platonism still to be found in then teachings of the Church.

3000 Dead Pigs in Shanghai Water Supply

So, we decided to start paying for bottled water. We probably should have been doing it since we got here, but who the hell knows where the water in the bottle comes from.

I've always maintained keeping kosher in China is neigh impossible. But even I'm amazed.