Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Bo Xilai, The Thriller

I've been reading up on the Bo Xilai affair. What I find interesting is that his wife's cousin, Gu Junshan, has also been arrested. Gu Junshan was a Deputy Director in the General Logistics Department. I'd earlier reported that Gu Junshan was Bo Xilai's father-in-law. That is incorrect.

Still, what's interesting is Gu Junshan was arrested before the rest of them. And he was arrested by General Liu Yuan, an associate of Bo Xilai. In my theory, I imagine Bo Xilai as being Gu Junshan's patron. I don't think General Liu Yuan would have touched Gu Junshan unless he already knew Bo Xilai was weak.

Heywood died on November 14th. Lunar New Year was January 23rd. The investigation leading to  Bo Xilai's downfall starts sometime in January. The investigation is thought to be targeting Wang Lijun, Bo's police chief.  Wang Lijun cracks and blackmails Bo Xilai on January 16th. This deal only lasts until February 2nd, on that day Wang Lijun is demoted. 

That gives Beijing eight days for it to get the information about Bo Xilai and decide to arrest Gu Junshan. I find that implausible.

Instead, the investigation must have been targeting Bo Xilai all along. In short, my claim is that the Wang Lijun incident didn't trigger Bo Xilai's downfall. There was something else.

What was that something else? Heywood dies. Something found among his possession implicates Gu Junshan. The crime suspected is so great Bo Xilai's protections is worthless. They pick up Gu Junshan and work him over. He gives up his cousins. Beijing goes in for the kill, but they have to muddy the waters. They pretend to go after Wang Lijun. Success.

If I were to fictionalize it, I'd have Gu Junshan arrested first, then Heywood killed. I like the idea of Gu Junshan being found out due to shoddy field craft. And of course I'd consider changing Gu Junshan into Bo Xilai's father-in-law. 
 

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