Thursday, December 13, 2012

HOGS to Slaughter

I'm ambivalent about the Zhongpin (HOGS) going private transaction. I'd be more keen if we were getting book value.

I live in China. Not having to deal with Chinese management is worth something, but not the haircut they're trying to give us. They better up the offer, if only to put my options in the sweet spot.

Like we've ranted about before, Chinese pork producers are inefficient. As the market consolidates, Zhongpin could find itself in a beautiful position. I'm willing to speculate on that. Looks like Xianfu Zhu is too. He'll pay us, well you the shareholders $13.50 to walk away. Book value is more like $14.50.

I'm hoping he ups his offer, but, in the end, might as well let him take it. You don't need to own shares in a Chinese pork producer to play a China angle. China imports tons of pork from America. What you ought to do is find yourself a nice, American company with some decent China exposure.

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