Sunday, March 3, 2013

North Korea China Relations

There's been a lot of talk about the relationship between China and North Korea recently. I just want to put some things in perspective.

Neither India or Pakistan have a ballistic missile that can target Beijing. North Korea has one. North Korea also has some nukes. They might even have some ballistic missiles armed with nukes.

If North Korea is a threat to America its a far greater threat to China. Is the relationship between China and North Korea going to change? Yes. North Korea is dependent on China but has China locked in a position of Mutually Assured Pain.

North Korean missiles are able to target the entire Chinese seaboard. Hell they could even hit Chengdu or Lhasa.

So what's my prediction? Either the relationship is going to go sour quick, or China will accept the new reality facing it: North Korea cannot be reduced to tribute state status. Frankly, it's already a bit late to do anything but accept North Korea can't be coerced.

And we're making the same damn mistake with Iran.

But another mistake we're making is thinking of these weapons as North Korea's. They aren't. They're the ruling coalitions. How valuable are they as bargaining chips in either a situation where the Kims are being given the boot, or in a negotiated reunification?

In fine, North Korea's nukes are a safety net in more than one way; they present the leadership with intriguing bartering options in multiple scenarios.

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