Today Via Meadia had a post talking about the Chinese slowdown. It links to a Washington Post article. The city being discussed in Dongguan. I spent half a year living in Dongguan.
For various reasons I don't agree with the article. Dongguan has always had its empty parts. After all, Dongguan is home to the biggest mall in the world. I think less than 10% of the stores in that mall have ever been occupied. In short, Dongguan is a town full of white elephants. I'm not surprised a hotel was empty.
So I guess take issue with the "atmospherics" the Washington Post piece sets up. The economic slowdown isn't hollowing out Dongguan. Dongguan's emptiness isn't a new phenomena requiring explanation.
Crappy centralized planning in Dongguan created parts of the city never extensively occupied. That's the real problem: planning.
Second, there are plenty of factory jobs, at least as of a few months ago, for people that want them. Factories doing intricate work, say watch making, for instance, have started having problems finding trainees to replace their aging work force. I think this is partially an education/cultural problem. University graduates consider this type of work demeaning. High school graduates don't have enough training. High school graduates get pissed off at quality control regimes because often they're not good at intricate work; and most factories have pay deductions for sloppy work. This is Foxcomm's woe.
Why is this happening? Planning. Chinese schools are failing their students. China has crappy demographics. I'm optimistic though.
Shale oil is transforming America. China has even larger shale reserves. They need the energy. Developing their reserves is going to create a lot of jobs.
Monday, November 26, 2012
Friday, November 23, 2012
The Return of Fiscal Responsibility
I don't think the Republican Party's tax stance has lost us any voters. Nevertheless, I'm heartened to see some Republicans, like Saxby Chambliss, become less dogmatic on the issue.
I don't think the federal debt is our biggest problem. Our debt burden should be reduced. We should stop borrowing money to fund entitlement programs. The federal debt isn't the real problem though.
The real problem is the trillions of dollars in unfunded liabilities the states are racking up. This will result either in a cut of public service, a cut in pension benefits, increased taxes, or even worse states asking for a federal bailout.
What will that bailout cost? Doubtless the federal government will claim the states unable to govern themselves. They will make federal funds contingent on increased federal oversight. That could be the true cost of continued fiscal irresponsibility in the state houses.
I don't think the federal debt is our biggest problem. Our debt burden should be reduced. We should stop borrowing money to fund entitlement programs. The federal debt isn't the real problem though.
The real problem is the trillions of dollars in unfunded liabilities the states are racking up. This will result either in a cut of public service, a cut in pension benefits, increased taxes, or even worse states asking for a federal bailout.
What will that bailout cost? Doubtless the federal government will claim the states unable to govern themselves. They will make federal funds contingent on increased federal oversight. That could be the true cost of continued fiscal irresponsibility in the state houses.
Thursday, November 22, 2012
Obama Dissed
Investor Business Daily is running a piece saying Obama was dissed by Cambodia's First Lady. After some review, it seems he was. The point of contention is the level of the First Lady's hands; they're not high enough.
Countries betting against us will find themselves sorely disappointed. IBD is wrong to claim the Obama administration's policy is all show. Of course his trip is mostly symbolic; but symbolism matters. There is the TPP free trade zone in the work, continued support for internationalizing territorial disputes, and Obama did speak out for minority groups in Burma.
In another post, I wrote Obama was a disappointment. He is a disappointment. His administration's policy, however, makes sense.
Countries betting against us will find themselves sorely disappointed. IBD is wrong to claim the Obama administration's policy is all show. Of course his trip is mostly symbolic; but symbolism matters. There is the TPP free trade zone in the work, continued support for internationalizing territorial disputes, and Obama did speak out for minority groups in Burma.
In another post, I wrote Obama was a disappointment. He is a disappointment. His administration's policy, however, makes sense.
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
Bo Xilai, The Thriller
I've been reading up on the Bo Xilai affair. What I find interesting is that his wife's cousin, Gu Junshan, has also been arrested. Gu Junshan was a Deputy Director in the General Logistics Department. I'd earlier reported that Gu Junshan was Bo Xilai's father-in-law. That is incorrect.
Still, what's interesting is Gu Junshan was arrested before the rest of them. And he was arrested by General Liu Yuan, an associate of Bo Xilai. In my theory, I imagine Bo Xilai as being Gu Junshan's patron. I don't think General Liu Yuan would have touched Gu Junshan unless he already knew Bo Xilai was weak.
Heywood died on November 14th. Lunar New Year was January 23rd. The investigation leading to Bo Xilai's downfall starts sometime in January. The investigation is thought to be targeting Wang Lijun, Bo's police chief. Wang Lijun cracks and blackmails Bo Xilai on January 16th. This deal only lasts until February 2nd, on that day Wang Lijun is demoted.
That gives Beijing eight days for it to get the information about Bo Xilai and decide to arrest Gu Junshan. I find that implausible.
Instead, the investigation must have been targeting Bo Xilai all along. In short, my claim is that the Wang Lijun incident didn't trigger Bo Xilai's downfall. There was something else.
What was that something else? Heywood dies. Something found among his possession implicates Gu Junshan. The crime suspected is so great Bo Xilai's protections is worthless. They pick up Gu Junshan and work him over. He gives up his cousins. Beijing goes in for the kill, but they have to muddy the waters. They pretend to go after Wang Lijun. Success.
If I were to fictionalize it, I'd have Gu Junshan arrested first, then Heywood killed. I like the idea of Gu Junshan being found out due to shoddy field craft. And of course I'd consider changing Gu Junshan into Bo Xilai's father-in-law.
Still, what's interesting is Gu Junshan was arrested before the rest of them. And he was arrested by General Liu Yuan, an associate of Bo Xilai. In my theory, I imagine Bo Xilai as being Gu Junshan's patron. I don't think General Liu Yuan would have touched Gu Junshan unless he already knew Bo Xilai was weak.
Heywood died on November 14th. Lunar New Year was January 23rd. The investigation leading to Bo Xilai's downfall starts sometime in January. The investigation is thought to be targeting Wang Lijun, Bo's police chief. Wang Lijun cracks and blackmails Bo Xilai on January 16th. This deal only lasts until February 2nd, on that day Wang Lijun is demoted.
That gives Beijing eight days for it to get the information about Bo Xilai and decide to arrest Gu Junshan. I find that implausible.
Instead, the investigation must have been targeting Bo Xilai all along. In short, my claim is that the Wang Lijun incident didn't trigger Bo Xilai's downfall. There was something else.
What was that something else? Heywood dies. Something found among his possession implicates Gu Junshan. The crime suspected is so great Bo Xilai's protections is worthless. They pick up Gu Junshan and work him over. He gives up his cousins. Beijing goes in for the kill, but they have to muddy the waters. They pretend to go after Wang Lijun. Success.
If I were to fictionalize it, I'd have Gu Junshan arrested first, then Heywood killed. I like the idea of Gu Junshan being found out due to shoddy field craft. And of course I'd consider changing Gu Junshan into Bo Xilai's father-in-law.
Burma/Cambodia Developments
Evan Osnos wrote a decent post on Obama's Burma trip. He reports the the Chinese Propaganda Department ordered the media to downplay the visit. They've done that effectively; Ping read an article about the trip. The article said Obama's speech was so dull Clinton fell asleep.
Over at Via Meadia, there was a piece about the ASEAN statement. It has long been ASEAN's position that territorial disputes should discussed only in multilateral negotiations. This is also America's position. The Chinese dislike this; they believe territorial issues should be resolved in bilateral negotiations.
In any case, yesterday ASEAN put out a statement saying territorial disputes shouldn't be "internationalized". This came as a bit of a shock. I remember seeing the story, I think on Drudge, and thinking: how could we let this happen while Obama is there?
Turns out the statement was issued by Cambodia without clearance or consultation. ASEAN's position has not changed.
It would have been surprising had it changed. In any case, this gives us a pretty good idea Cambodia is still in China's camp. Doubtless the wooing will continue. My worry is Southeast Asian countries will attempt to freeload. Australia's budget cuts are a potential example of this. This is something we need to look out for in the next few months.
Over at Via Meadia, there was a piece about the ASEAN statement. It has long been ASEAN's position that territorial disputes should discussed only in multilateral negotiations. This is also America's position. The Chinese dislike this; they believe territorial issues should be resolved in bilateral negotiations.
In any case, yesterday ASEAN put out a statement saying territorial disputes shouldn't be "internationalized". This came as a bit of a shock. I remember seeing the story, I think on Drudge, and thinking: how could we let this happen while Obama is there?
Turns out the statement was issued by Cambodia without clearance or consultation. ASEAN's position has not changed.
It would have been surprising had it changed. In any case, this gives us a pretty good idea Cambodia is still in China's camp. Doubtless the wooing will continue. My worry is Southeast Asian countries will attempt to freeload. Australia's budget cuts are a potential example of this. This is something we need to look out for in the next few months.
Tuesday, November 20, 2012
Unaccountable Elites
Liu Xiao'ao, a first year university student majoring in Flight Attending, died a few days ago. She and five schoolmates were invited to dinner by six "teachers". How did she die?
You'd think that would be a legitimate question, but you'd be wrong. According to the university's party committee secretary, the press is just trying to cause trouble. Fair enough, no one much cares for the press.
The father and family aren't members of the press though. You'd think someone from the school would meet with the family. Nope, they can't be bothered. All the family has gotten is a phone call from the Dean. He told them to stop badgering teachers.
These administrators, these educators, are scum. Even if this was just an accident. Their treatment of the family is inexcusable.
We have this Flight Attending major at my university as well. Is this a job that requires four years of special training? Of course not. But if there is demand for such a course, so be it. I merely mention the major in order to provide context.
Those majoring in Flight Attendance are forced to dress the part--roller-bags and all. They're forced to work as wait staff at events and functions. In short, few majors are more used or abused.
People are speculating one of these "teachers" tried to force themselves on Liu Xiao'ao. She attempted to escape; she fell to her death. Now the school is trying to cover it up.
I suspect they're right. The dinner in question occurred on the school's anniversary. Just imagine, you've worked so hard; let us treat you to dinner...
You'd think the truth would out. Nope. In this country even mere university professors at a third tier institution are untouchable. It is simply disgusting. The police can't even be bothered.
We've been talking about democracy, getting rid of Maoist thought, the head of the Security Service being demoted. None of it matters at all. There is no rule of law in this country.
This situation makes that truth depressingly clear.
You'd think that would be a legitimate question, but you'd be wrong. According to the university's party committee secretary, the press is just trying to cause trouble. Fair enough, no one much cares for the press.
The father and family aren't members of the press though. You'd think someone from the school would meet with the family. Nope, they can't be bothered. All the family has gotten is a phone call from the Dean. He told them to stop badgering teachers.
These administrators, these educators, are scum. Even if this was just an accident. Their treatment of the family is inexcusable.
We have this Flight Attending major at my university as well. Is this a job that requires four years of special training? Of course not. But if there is demand for such a course, so be it. I merely mention the major in order to provide context.
Those majoring in Flight Attendance are forced to dress the part--roller-bags and all. They're forced to work as wait staff at events and functions. In short, few majors are more used or abused.
People are speculating one of these "teachers" tried to force themselves on Liu Xiao'ao. She attempted to escape; she fell to her death. Now the school is trying to cover it up.
I suspect they're right. The dinner in question occurred on the school's anniversary. Just imagine, you've worked so hard; let us treat you to dinner...
You'd think the truth would out. Nope. In this country even mere university professors at a third tier institution are untouchable. It is simply disgusting. The police can't even be bothered.
We've been talking about democracy, getting rid of Maoist thought, the head of the Security Service being demoted. None of it matters at all. There is no rule of law in this country.
This situation makes that truth depressingly clear.
Monday, November 19, 2012
Obama in Burma
Why is Obama such a disappointment? He can't even pronounce Aung San Suu Kyi's name. This isn't nitpicking. Instead of saying San, he repeatedly said Yan. He also decided to start calling Burma Myanmar. Not that it really matters; it's just slightly embarrassing.
Burma is a important country in Southeast Asia. It has abundant natural resources and good geography. For a long time the only country investing in Burma was China. This investment consists of one of China's oil pipelines and a large dam project. The dam project was suspended by the new government; the project never enjoyed widespread support. The pipeline is still under construction.
Now that Burmese politics has begun to thaw, America can get in the act too. We don't have to do much. Human development is the name of the game. It is something the Chinese in Burma have neglected; the Chinese government doesn't give a damn about your average Burmese peasant. That's their weakness; that's why the dam project was suspended.
By being present in Burma, we allow the Burmese to observe our conduct and contrast it with the Chinese. No doubt American soft power will shine.
There is a problem though. The Rohingya, a Muslim minority, are being targeted. They are seen as alien, illegal immigrants from Bangladesh. Their houses are being razed. Some are killed. Aung San Suu Kyi is avoiding the issue. The United States does not have that luxury.
Burma is a important country in Southeast Asia. It has abundant natural resources and good geography. For a long time the only country investing in Burma was China. This investment consists of one of China's oil pipelines and a large dam project. The dam project was suspended by the new government; the project never enjoyed widespread support. The pipeline is still under construction.
Now that Burmese politics has begun to thaw, America can get in the act too. We don't have to do much. Human development is the name of the game. It is something the Chinese in Burma have neglected; the Chinese government doesn't give a damn about your average Burmese peasant. That's their weakness; that's why the dam project was suspended.
By being present in Burma, we allow the Burmese to observe our conduct and contrast it with the Chinese. No doubt American soft power will shine.
There is a problem though. The Rohingya, a Muslim minority, are being targeted. They are seen as alien, illegal immigrants from Bangladesh. Their houses are being razed. Some are killed. Aung San Suu Kyi is avoiding the issue. The United States does not have that luxury.
Sunday, November 18, 2012
The Last Lion
The final volume of The Last Lion, the biography of Churchill, has been released. I hear only praise for it. Definitely on my reading list, after I finish Special Providence by Walter Mead, which is very fine book indeed.
A Letter from Joseph Goebbels
I always suspected Goebbels for the Obama Girl. In this letter he professes his undying admiration for the One.
Saturday, November 17, 2012
Singles Day Overload
Friday, November 16, 2012
Japanese Shale Reserves
Poor Japan. Looks like they don't have any extensive shale reserves. This is good news for Russia; they'll have someone buying their oil. Will this change Russia's foreign policy? Hopefully.
Propane Fracturing
China is experiencing water shortages. Demand with water will only increase with time, especially if shale takes off. The Center for Strategic and International Studies cites a study for the International Finance Corps claiming demand in 2030 will outstrip supply by 200 bcm, this does not take into account demand for shale gas development. Half of China's water is used for agriculture. Doubtless there is room for increased efficiency.
India and China have already been introducing drip irrigation, even for rice.
Drip irrigation decreases water demand by up to 70%, while increasing productivity. China provides preferential loans and funding for this sort of irrigation improvement.
One problem, however, is water subsidies. These subsidies seem designed to help residential users. Different rates are applied to commercial and industrial users. Reduced subsides will decrease residential demand per household, but the number of urban households is bound to increase. My data is a little dated though. So I'm hopeful water tariffs have been increased to cover more of the true costs.
Forests are another problem. There have been illogical forestry programs in China. These programs plant trees unsuitable for local conditions. Sadly I'm having trouble finding a source. This makes me think their are special water subsidies for pet projects, which wouldn't be surprising.
Other solutions to China's water woes include the South-North Water Transfer Project. Even more controversial options include the diversion of the Brahmaputra and Mekong Rivers, both originate in China.
Another solution is Propane Fracturing. This uses propane instead of water as a fracturing agent. It appears, however, to be more expensive. Although the technology is proprietary and the companies developing it are keeping their cards close to their chest. In any case, increased efficiency in the agriculture sector is probably what we'll be seeing the most of.
India and China have already been introducing drip irrigation, even for rice.
Drip irrigation decreases water demand by up to 70%, while increasing productivity. China provides preferential loans and funding for this sort of irrigation improvement.
One problem, however, is water subsidies. These subsidies seem designed to help residential users. Different rates are applied to commercial and industrial users. Reduced subsides will decrease residential demand per household, but the number of urban households is bound to increase. My data is a little dated though. So I'm hopeful water tariffs have been increased to cover more of the true costs.
Forests are another problem. There have been illogical forestry programs in China. These programs plant trees unsuitable for local conditions. Sadly I'm having trouble finding a source. This makes me think their are special water subsidies for pet projects, which wouldn't be surprising.
Other solutions to China's water woes include the South-North Water Transfer Project. Even more controversial options include the diversion of the Brahmaputra and Mekong Rivers, both originate in China.
Another solution is Propane Fracturing. This uses propane instead of water as a fracturing agent. It appears, however, to be more expensive. Although the technology is proprietary and the companies developing it are keeping their cards close to their chest. In any case, increased efficiency in the agriculture sector is probably what we'll be seeing the most of.
Game Change: Chinese Shale Reserves
By now you'll likely know, America will achieve energy independence by 2035. America, however, is not alone. Enough shale has been found in Lancashire to power Britain for 65 years.
Good news is likely to come China's way too. We already know China has ample shale reserves. Indeed, China has the largest reserves in the world and is looking to copy America's success story.
This changes things. At present roughly 80% of Chinese oil supplies pass through the Straits of Malacca. China has always been uncomfortable with this fact. Hence its many pipeline projects.
The Malacca choke point meant China had to behave in disputes with neighbors. Vietnam, the Philippines, and India might not be the most formidable of foes, but they didn't have to be.
As Chinese shale comes online, China can afford to become more aggressive in territorial disputes. This offers a more interesting explanation for the recent dispute with Japan. Some theorize the dispute is a consequence of the leadership transition; no Chinese leader can afford to appear weak. This is a plausible explanation, but I'm beginning to doubt it, the reasons why though are a tangent for another time.
One thing is certain though, China's shale reserves gives it increased flexibility, its multiple pipeline projects gives it even more flexibility. Countries in the region doubtless realize this; China will become more aggressive in territorial disputes.
The gloves aren't completely off though. China's economy still needs the seas for export. So what we'll see is assertiveness not ham-fisted hostility.
These developments also change things in the Middle East and Russia. The Spectator discusses these issues.
---
What troubles is Australia's defense cuts. If my narrative is correct, this is hardly the time to pare down defense spending. This, however, makes the Trans-Pacific Partnership all the more important. We need to get countries with the region trading with one another; as a means of increasing their common interest. These countries have long been hedging their bets. Will they continue to do so? Does it matter?
Last summer there was a similar dispute between China and the Philippines. That dispute ended at the start of typhoon season. After the season the issue never got much media play. And for good reason; China can't start alienating countries in Southeast Asia. When will the Diaoyu islands be placed on the back burner? Your guess is as good as mine. Why didn't they make the Philippines dispute a bigger deal? They must of had an inkling of their shale reserves. Institutions are sticky. Someone in the foreign ministry must have put a damper on things. This probably happened at a lower level. The dispute gets kicked up a pay-grade or two. There's a thorough review. Policy is changed. Diaoyu ideal trial run in some ways; real hatred for the Japanese in country; in region? Possibly.
Good news is likely to come China's way too. We already know China has ample shale reserves. Indeed, China has the largest reserves in the world and is looking to copy America's success story.
This changes things. At present roughly 80% of Chinese oil supplies pass through the Straits of Malacca. China has always been uncomfortable with this fact. Hence its many pipeline projects.
The Malacca choke point meant China had to behave in disputes with neighbors. Vietnam, the Philippines, and India might not be the most formidable of foes, but they didn't have to be.
As Chinese shale comes online, China can afford to become more aggressive in territorial disputes. This offers a more interesting explanation for the recent dispute with Japan. Some theorize the dispute is a consequence of the leadership transition; no Chinese leader can afford to appear weak. This is a plausible explanation, but I'm beginning to doubt it, the reasons why though are a tangent for another time.
One thing is certain though, China's shale reserves gives it increased flexibility, its multiple pipeline projects gives it even more flexibility. Countries in the region doubtless realize this; China will become more aggressive in territorial disputes.
The gloves aren't completely off though. China's economy still needs the seas for export. So what we'll see is assertiveness not ham-fisted hostility.
These developments also change things in the Middle East and Russia. The Spectator discusses these issues.
---
What troubles is Australia's defense cuts. If my narrative is correct, this is hardly the time to pare down defense spending. This, however, makes the Trans-Pacific Partnership all the more important. We need to get countries with the region trading with one another; as a means of increasing their common interest. These countries have long been hedging their bets. Will they continue to do so? Does it matter?
Last summer there was a similar dispute between China and the Philippines. That dispute ended at the start of typhoon season. After the season the issue never got much media play. And for good reason; China can't start alienating countries in Southeast Asia. When will the Diaoyu islands be placed on the back burner? Your guess is as good as mine. Why didn't they make the Philippines dispute a bigger deal? They must of had an inkling of their shale reserves. Institutions are sticky. Someone in the foreign ministry must have put a damper on things. This probably happened at a lower level. The dispute gets kicked up a pay-grade or two. There's a thorough review. Policy is changed. Diaoyu ideal trial run in some ways; real hatred for the Japanese in country; in region? Possibly.
Open Season on Generals
Certainly that's the case in America. But China has also been getting into the act. General Gu Junshan, a deputy director of the General Logistics Department (second highest military organ), has been detained. That happened earlier in the year.
More interesting is the comment of a delegate at the Party Congress:
I live very close to a PLA Air Force base. As a military brat, I've been living near Air Force bases my whole life. And you never forget because planes are always being obnoxious overhead.
I didn't realize I was living so close to a PLA Air Force base until my father told me he'd spotted it on Google Earth. In the last three months, I've never seen more than two fighters jets up at a time. So maybe the fuel budget is being misappropriated. I doubt it though.
Looking at a Rand Report, I'm using projected figures for 2025, 44% of China's defense budget is spent on personnel. 28% is spent on Operations and Maintenance. 28% is spent on Procurement and RDT&E.
You'd need to steal half the personnel budget, a third of the operations budget, and a third of the procurement budget. I suppose stealing from the personnel budget is the easiest and least harmful.
Your guess is as good as mine as to where they're stealing the money from. Incidentally Gu Junshan, it appears, just sold off military owned land and stole homes meant for retired officers. Such actions don't diminish China's military capability.
The corruption needn't involves embezzlement from the State coffers. The PLA is a big business. Generals can enrich themselves on the business side through tax avoidance. According to Rand, in the 1990s, most employees of the People's Bank of China, the central bank, didn't even bother to pay income tax. They can also just embezzle from said companies. The money PLA Inc. made used to just for increasing troop living standards.
In short, corruption within the PLA leadership doesn't mean China's military is a paper tiger.
More interesting is the comment of a delegate at the Party Congress:
one party member to comment wryly to the Financial Times that nothing displays structural weakness like overweight generals.The most interesting claim is that 40% of China's military budget is lost to corruption. I doubt that is so. It appears plausible though.
I live very close to a PLA Air Force base. As a military brat, I've been living near Air Force bases my whole life. And you never forget because planes are always being obnoxious overhead.
I didn't realize I was living so close to a PLA Air Force base until my father told me he'd spotted it on Google Earth. In the last three months, I've never seen more than two fighters jets up at a time. So maybe the fuel budget is being misappropriated. I doubt it though.
Looking at a Rand Report, I'm using projected figures for 2025, 44% of China's defense budget is spent on personnel. 28% is spent on Operations and Maintenance. 28% is spent on Procurement and RDT&E.
You'd need to steal half the personnel budget, a third of the operations budget, and a third of the procurement budget. I suppose stealing from the personnel budget is the easiest and least harmful.
Your guess is as good as mine as to where they're stealing the money from. Incidentally Gu Junshan, it appears, just sold off military owned land and stole homes meant for retired officers. Such actions don't diminish China's military capability.
The corruption needn't involves embezzlement from the State coffers. The PLA is a big business. Generals can enrich themselves on the business side through tax avoidance. According to Rand, in the 1990s, most employees of the People's Bank of China, the central bank, didn't even bother to pay income tax. They can also just embezzle from said companies. The money PLA Inc. made used to just for increasing troop living standards.
In short, corruption within the PLA leadership doesn't mean China's military is a paper tiger.
Thursday, November 15, 2012
Neoconservatism 3.0
The fine folks at bloggingheads.tv talk about neoconservatives and the "Chinese other". I suppose they're right; Why else would I be in China?
Wednesday, November 14, 2012
New Leadership
Xi Jinping, as expected, has been named General-Secretary of the CCP. The Politburo standing committee includes six others.
The six other members of the standing committee are:
Li Keqiang
Zhang Dejiang
Yu Zhengsheng
Liu Yunshan
Wang Qishan
Zhang Gaoli
More details to follow.
The six other members of the standing committee are:
Li Keqiang
Zhang Dejiang
Yu Zhengsheng
Liu Yunshan
Wang Qishan
Zhang Gaoli
More details to follow.
Hu's Legacy
The 18th Party Congress is coming to an end. So I decided to swing by to Popup Chinese to listen to Sinica, a China news podcast. Of course the conversation soon turns to the question of internal party democracy. As Jeremy Goldkorn says, "Come on, let's be straight, they're not going to make any meaningful reforms to the way the place is governed at this f**king meeting." More over at Popup Chinese.
How will the Hu period be remembered? Welfare will probably be high on the list, and rightly so.
In the coming years though, China will have to run faster and faster just to keep up. Reading the news today, I'm optimistic about the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a proposed free trade bloc encompassing nearly 700 million people. Its unwitting midwife the CCP.
Tuesday, November 13, 2012
Education
Tonight I decide to re-listen to a podcast by Diane Ravitch on Education. She starts by discussing the two latest fads in Education reform: accountability and choice. I've also started her book, The Death and Life of the Great American School System.
Accountability
Accountability gave us No Child Left Behind, utopian goals, merit pay, standardized testing, and the idea of "failing schools". It has also created perverse incentives that encourage schools to focus more and more attention on the basics like reading and math.
Schools, and states, doctor their results; because the goals are unachievable. This isn't surprising. Their funding is at stake. Their livelihoods are at stake.
They'll tell poor preforming students to stay home. They'll change testing standards. That's human nature.
During the Great Leap Forward Chinese bureaucrats over reported grain reserves. Consequently Beijing continued to sell grain overseas in exchange for much needed currency, Communists don't believe in running up a debt. Millions of people died including my mother-in-law's youngest sister.
They starved. Some bureaucrats too.
Grade inflation? Doctoring test results? Not a problem--for them. But someday we as a nation will pay the price.
Worst of all, judging by the only test Diane Ravitch trusts, we've achieved limited improvements in Mathematics and no improvements in Reading.
We can't even teach the basics.
Choice
Choice is the other fad. Charter schools the hot idea. Vouchers too get mention. But only 3% of children in the public education system attend charter schools. During the national debates public education was ignored. There's no other word for it; ignored.
Even worse, charter schools aren't improving results. Our evaluation of them is distorted. When we think of charter schools, we think of inspiring stories. There are plenty of heartwarming stories to be had. These are the exceptions. Charter schools do not outperform public schools in the one test Ravitch trusts.
And it turns out vouchers aren't a viable solution either. Why? Because of legal challenges. And a lack of supply.
Plus in many states vouchers can't be used to send students to faith-based schools. This is a worse problem than you might think. Faith based schools are denied voucher money. And their students are poached.
Parents withdraw their children from faith-based schools. They send their children to secular schools. In doing so, they become eligible for voucher money.
Conclusion
The real solution to our education woes is getting qualified teachers into the classroom. But as Arthur C. Clarke says, I paraphrase, if a teacher can be replaced with a computer, they should be replaced.
Programs like Kahn Academy come to mind. Maybe Kahn Academy can't teach everyone math, but it can teach a lot of people. That frees the teacher to focus on students requiring the most assistance. Technology isn't the answer; we still need flesh and blood teachers, but technology will play a part.
The larger point is this: we don't know the answer to our education problems. We need to experiment responsibly. Our task isn't to abolish all inequalities. We must accept the odds don't favor the poor. Our task is simply to improve the odds. Something we've been failing at for quite a while.
Accountability
Accountability gave us No Child Left Behind, utopian goals, merit pay, standardized testing, and the idea of "failing schools". It has also created perverse incentives that encourage schools to focus more and more attention on the basics like reading and math.
Schools, and states, doctor their results; because the goals are unachievable. This isn't surprising. Their funding is at stake. Their livelihoods are at stake.
They'll tell poor preforming students to stay home. They'll change testing standards. That's human nature.
During the Great Leap Forward Chinese bureaucrats over reported grain reserves. Consequently Beijing continued to sell grain overseas in exchange for much needed currency, Communists don't believe in running up a debt. Millions of people died including my mother-in-law's youngest sister.
They starved. Some bureaucrats too.
Grade inflation? Doctoring test results? Not a problem--for them. But someday we as a nation will pay the price.
Worst of all, judging by the only test Diane Ravitch trusts, we've achieved limited improvements in Mathematics and no improvements in Reading.
We can't even teach the basics.
Choice
Choice is the other fad. Charter schools the hot idea. Vouchers too get mention. But only 3% of children in the public education system attend charter schools. During the national debates public education was ignored. There's no other word for it; ignored.
Even worse, charter schools aren't improving results. Our evaluation of them is distorted. When we think of charter schools, we think of inspiring stories. There are plenty of heartwarming stories to be had. These are the exceptions. Charter schools do not outperform public schools in the one test Ravitch trusts.
And it turns out vouchers aren't a viable solution either. Why? Because of legal challenges. And a lack of supply.
Plus in many states vouchers can't be used to send students to faith-based schools. This is a worse problem than you might think. Faith based schools are denied voucher money. And their students are poached.
Parents withdraw their children from faith-based schools. They send their children to secular schools. In doing so, they become eligible for voucher money.
Conclusion
The real solution to our education woes is getting qualified teachers into the classroom. But as Arthur C. Clarke says, I paraphrase, if a teacher can be replaced with a computer, they should be replaced.
Programs like Kahn Academy come to mind. Maybe Kahn Academy can't teach everyone math, but it can teach a lot of people. That frees the teacher to focus on students requiring the most assistance. Technology isn't the answer; we still need flesh and blood teachers, but technology will play a part.
The larger point is this: we don't know the answer to our education problems. We need to experiment responsibly. Our task isn't to abolish all inequalities. We must accept the odds don't favor the poor. Our task is simply to improve the odds. Something we've been failing at for quite a while.
Monday, November 12, 2012
Look Out For Jim
Walter Russell Mead is right.
Is this some vast conspiracy to force Petraeus out? Hopefully. But it wasn't orchestrated from the White House.
Even if he isn’t telling her security secrets, the Director of Central Intelligence should not be having an affair with a working reporter in his field of activity. That in itself is an error of judgment that merits and in all but the most exceptional of circumstances demands immediate dismissal.Did politics play a role in waiting until after the election? Possibly.
Is this some vast conspiracy to force Petraeus out? Hopefully. But it wasn't orchestrated from the White House.
$4 Trillion in Unfunded Liabilities
Every state, except for Vermont, has to balance their budget. But Joshua Rauh explains why 92% of economists surveyed by University of Chicago agree or strongly agree some states will require federal bailouts, austerity budgets, or default. More at Russ Roberts' EconTalk.
Pretty shocking stuff.
One of the problems is unfunded healthcare benefits for state retirees.
Here's a breakdown of unfunded liabilities related to state retiree healthcare benefits (using optimistic assumptions). Click on your state to complain.
Let's start with a list of states with 0% of their liabilities funded:
Oklahoma (No major liabilities.)
The following states have funded 0.1% to 1% of their liabilities:
California (0.1%)
Illinois (0.1%)
Maryland (1%)
Pennsylvania (1%)
Texas (1%)
Vermont (0.5%)
The following states have funded between 2% to 5% of their pension liabilities:
Alabama (5%)
Delaware (2%)
Georgia (3%)
Indiana (5%)
Kansas (2%)
Massachusetts (2%)
Michigan (2%)
Missouri (3%)
Nevada (2%)
New Hampshire (2%)
New Mexico (5%)
North Carolina (3%)
South Carolina (5%)
The following states have funded more than 5% of their liabilities:
Alaska (50%)
Arizona (69%)
Colorado (14%)
Idaho (12%)
Kentucky (15%)
Maine (6%)
North Dakota (30%)
Ohio (32%)
Oregon (31%)
Utah (22%)
Virginia (26%)
West Virginia (6%)
Wisconsin (38%)
(No data for Nebraska.) [Pew Trust source.]
Sunday, November 11, 2012
Remembrance Day as Singles Day
Today is Poppy Day, Veterans Day, Single's Day!
In China the day (literally bare sticks day) is celebrated by singles gathering for dinner to celebrate their continued singleness. Over its relatively short lifespan, it was first celebrated in 1993, it has morphed into a sort of sales day extravaganza. As you can imagine, last year's Single's Day (11.11.11) was the Single's Day rapture of almost Black Friday proportions.
It isn't all fun and games and shopping though.
Due to China's One Child policy, there are 50 million men doomed to singleness. For these men there is enormous family pressure to marry. Pressure is not limited to just men though. Men may be in surplus, but quality is in short supply. It's snobbish to say so, I admit. But as we all know, more women graduate from university than men. Hence, for some Single's Day is devoted to speed dating. Now for the tangent.
In the United States, just glancing at the data, the assumption that more women than men are graduating from university is justified. It also seems justified for the United Kingdom. Listening to Chinese academics, you'd think something similar is occuring in China. It isn't.
In 2004, women made up 43.8 percent of undergraduate students, rising to 49.6 by 2012, according to Education Ministry figures cited by The 21st Century Business Herald.
In master’s programs, women made up 44.1 percent of students in 2004, rising to 50.3 by 2010. Among doctoral candidates in 2010, however, just over 35.4 percent were women, up from 31.3 in 2004.Turns out China is introducing gender quotas to keeps things "balanced".
The rules affected students like Ouyang Le, according to Ms. Xiong. A fresh graduate from a Guangzhou high school, Ms. Ouyang had wanted to study at the University of International Relations. She scored 614 points on the gaokao, but as a woman, needed 628. If Ms. Ouyang had been a man, she would have needed just 609.Quotas are nothing new. The Qing imposed both provincial and ethnic quotas. And provinces have long reserved more places for local students. But the fairness of the gaokao, the university entrance exam, is something people care about; but protests are understandably muted.
Saturday, November 10, 2012
Party Conference
It is that time again. Today Astrill, my VPN provider, sent me the following:
The last bit is reassuring. In any case, the censor's blanket attack on VPN protocols is becoming more problematic. And I suspect it will only worsen. So, if I go off the air, you know why.
China issue
Dear China customers,
Due to the Chinese communist party congress, there is increased blocking of VPN protocols. This is not targeted.
The last bit is reassuring. In any case, the censor's blanket attack on VPN protocols is becoming more problematic. And I suspect it will only worsen. So, if I go off the air, you know why.
Democracy: The Dignity of the Individual
I like Rory Stewarts work. I've read both The Places In Between and The Prince of the Marshes. Both were quite good. For a TED Talk though, his presentation leaves something to be desired.
He's right though. The best argument for democracy isn't instrumental. The best argument for democracy is deontological; democracy is the only form of government that respects the dignity of the individual.
Leveson Inquiry
The Leveson Inquiry was never a good idea. Rupert Murdoch's employees broke the law. The issue isn't journalists failing to maintain professional standards. Licensing is not the solution. You don't get rid of Sweeney Todd by licensing barbers. You arrest him.
The Leveson Inquiry will likely recommend statutory regulation of journalism. This is tantamount to the reintroducing the Licensing of the Press Act 1662. In short, journalists, or some subset of journalists, will become licensed professionals.
Hugh Grant points out that doctors, dentists, and the BBC are perfectly fine with being regulated. Of course they are. Licensure decreases competition. What concerns is how licensed professions develop guild-like mentalities.
Right now Leveson's intent is to regulate only newspapers. But how long will that last? No doubt his proposed regulator will, over time, spread its tentacles.
The exact form licensure will take is uncertain. Who will be required to obtain a license: individual journalists or newspapers? I suspect newspapers. There is talk about establishing a regulatory entity for pre-vetting controversial stories.
So much for free press and enterprise. Last week's Spectator led with the issue.
The Leveson Inquiry will likely recommend statutory regulation of journalism. This is tantamount to the reintroducing the Licensing of the Press Act 1662. In short, journalists, or some subset of journalists, will become licensed professionals.
Hugh Grant points out that doctors, dentists, and the BBC are perfectly fine with being regulated. Of course they are. Licensure decreases competition. What concerns is how licensed professions develop guild-like mentalities.
The exact form licensure will take is uncertain. Who will be required to obtain a license: individual journalists or newspapers? I suspect newspapers. There is talk about establishing a regulatory entity for pre-vetting controversial stories.
So much for free press and enterprise. Last week's Spectator led with the issue.
Friday, November 9, 2012
A Silver Lining
We Republicans failed to capture the White House, but our democracy continues to capture hearts and minds. Two comments from the Chinese blogosphere:
From the black civil rights movement of the 60s in the 20th century to Obama being elected the first black present in the 21st century, to today, where Obama has been reelected for a second term, Americans have used only 50 years of time. On this kind of incredible ability to correct/change its society, who can still say that capitalism is decadent and degenerate? With one foot in its grave? Instead, all of those people who have said capitalism is dying have one by one passed away in history like smoke!
And
Why do Chinese people pay attention to the United States election? It’s because of media hype, because of market attention, but at the bottom of their hearts there is also a political longing. In the face of the wave of democracy, one country cannot integrate in the world economically, and stands apart from the world system politically. With only those few friends in the entire world, whether it be dying Syria or unreliable North Korea or Castro, who often faints during his speeches.
I'm happy for other reasons too. The growing consensus is China will become a democracy in the next ten or fifteen years. This actually worries me. This is also the sense I get from talking with Party members. My undergraduate students are more pessimistic.
From the black civil rights movement of the 60s in the 20th century to Obama being elected the first black present in the 21st century, to today, where Obama has been reelected for a second term, Americans have used only 50 years of time. On this kind of incredible ability to correct/change its society, who can still say that capitalism is decadent and degenerate? With one foot in its grave? Instead, all of those people who have said capitalism is dying have one by one passed away in history like smoke!
And
Why do Chinese people pay attention to the United States election? It’s because of media hype, because of market attention, but at the bottom of their hearts there is also a political longing. In the face of the wave of democracy, one country cannot integrate in the world economically, and stands apart from the world system politically. With only those few friends in the entire world, whether it be dying Syria or unreliable North Korea or Castro, who often faints during his speeches.
I'm happy for other reasons too. The growing consensus is China will become a democracy in the next ten or fifteen years. This actually worries me. This is also the sense I get from talking with Party members. My undergraduate students are more pessimistic.
Thursday, November 8, 2012
Pays du seuil: An Insidious Idea
Reading Les Echos I came across this little gem:
The idea is to allow Iran to develop all the technology necessary for creating a bomb. The redline becomes assembly.
I hope this idea isn't gaining traction in American policy circles. This proposal is a mere face saving.
Does it address the problem of proliferation? If Iran is allowed to develop its nuclear weapons capacity to being weeks away from the bomb, then won't other countries in the region want a similar capacity? Or will assurances of American protection be sufficient?
At present, I suspect other countries won't be satisfied with American assurances--the British weren't. This, however, is a mere intuition of mine.
Another problem is trust. You'd have to establish reliable inspection regimes. What a bloody mess. And of course it will keep so many government and IGO functionaries busy. They'll love it. In the moment of crisis, they'll be uncertain. If the inspection regime fails, Israel, America, or a coalition of the willing will be forced to take unilateral actions. And Europe will be able to scream foul.
My greatest fear is if this idea gains traction, it will weaken Western resolve. The idea is insidious. If you assume Iran is a rational actor, it is so very pleasing. If your greatest worry is Iran's nuclear bomb being acquired by terrorists, the idea is still pleasing.
This proposal is a wedge; it challenges American/Israeli assumptions--or at least rhetoric. Iran is portrayed is irrational. And if you truly think that, then this idea is unsatisfactory. The power of the idea is that it reframes the debate; it gives Europe a way out; it give Obama a way out.
Will the President take it?
Le president americain a repete qu'il ne "laisserait pas" Teheran se doter de la bombe atonmique. Sans preciser s'il tolereait que l'Iran devienne un "pays de seuil", ne possedant pas une bombe prete a l'emploi mais capable d'en assembler une en quelques semaines si necessaire.
The idea is to allow Iran to develop all the technology necessary for creating a bomb. The redline becomes assembly.
I hope this idea isn't gaining traction in American policy circles. This proposal is a mere face saving.
Does it address the problem of proliferation? If Iran is allowed to develop its nuclear weapons capacity to being weeks away from the bomb, then won't other countries in the region want a similar capacity? Or will assurances of American protection be sufficient?
At present, I suspect other countries won't be satisfied with American assurances--the British weren't. This, however, is a mere intuition of mine.
Another problem is trust. You'd have to establish reliable inspection regimes. What a bloody mess. And of course it will keep so many government and IGO functionaries busy. They'll love it. In the moment of crisis, they'll be uncertain. If the inspection regime fails, Israel, America, or a coalition of the willing will be forced to take unilateral actions. And Europe will be able to scream foul.
My greatest fear is if this idea gains traction, it will weaken Western resolve. The idea is insidious. If you assume Iran is a rational actor, it is so very pleasing. If your greatest worry is Iran's nuclear bomb being acquired by terrorists, the idea is still pleasing.
This proposal is a wedge; it challenges American/Israeli assumptions--or at least rhetoric. Iran is portrayed is irrational. And if you truly think that, then this idea is unsatisfactory. The power of the idea is that it reframes the debate; it gives Europe a way out; it give Obama a way out.
Will the President take it?
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