Winter and Snow

Christmas Day comes and goes. In the morning we wake up to the sight of snow covered trees. The light dusting doesn't last long; the sun comes out and turns powder into drops. I hadn't seen snow for a year. In Beijing there was an awful amount of snow. Any amount of snow is awful in Beijing, or at least in Xidan. It just stays were it  is and gets dirty. Xidan snow is some of the dirtiest snow I've seen. Which is funny because there isn't really any dirt to be found in the center of the city.

All that grimey vileness is coming from the air. That's what makes Xidan snow so upalatable; it gives you some glimpse of what's happening to your lungs except you've been here a hell of a lot longer than that pile of snow.

It makes me think about Dreams of the Red Chamber and Waterboy. Characters in both those classics believe in different types of waters. Magic spells require more than mere water. They require water that's poperly sourced; the North Pole, the first snow, rain that fell on Tomb Sweeping day.

I find the idea cute. And then I look outside. I can think of few ways better to kill  a man than serving him tea made from Xidan snow: that patch of snow outside Joy City where the Apple Store is across from Zara's.

In Chengdu I don't think it snowed, I can't remember. Maybe I can't remember it because it was white; it doesn't stand out. Chengdu is such a clean city.

Wuhu snow is still young. If there's ever a blizzard, I want to go down to the banks of the Yangtze and it engulf the rusting hulks pressing upriver to Chongqing or downriver to Shanghai. Even then I imagine young lovers would still be standing beside the river sending Kongmingdeng up into the heavens.

Winter Holiday and Exams

Yeterday I finished my last exams. Now all I have to do is finish grading them and enter in grades. I was disappointed with the results of my current events class. I made the mistake of letting them use their dictonary during the exam. So, for some questions, I have answers taken from the dictonary word for word.

I find it stange. Sure, some of them didn't pay attention. Classes in China are pretty much pass/fail. As far as I can tell, undergraduate gpas aren't important for things like going to grad school. So the incentives really aren''t there, unless you're one of the very few students on scholarship.

Still, some of them did listen. But for some questions everyone decided to copy their answer out from the dictonary. The sad fact is they're afraid. They're afraid to write and they're afraid to listen. So, instead of taking a chance and expressing an idea in their own words, they steal the words of others. Instead of listening and forming their own understanding, they search for a ready-made interpertation.

There were only four individuals that did something unexpected on their exam. The rest of the variation came from the three different dictonaries being used. And when it came to answering factual questions and not merely defining things, they did very poorly.

These are all future students mind you. If they're too afraid think up answers that aren't in their books, they're not likely to tolerate novel answers from their students.


Anyways, some fresh thoughts for you all. Sorry for grammar and spelling. This computer hasn't any spell check unless I write in Chinese.

Japanese Politics

Well, I hadn't been following Japanese politics closely. I knew an election was in the works. I understood the Liberal Democrats were expected to be returned. Does this change Sino-Japanese relations? Those relations have always been terrible. I think we've lost sight of simple truths. Globalization, the clash of civilization, the war on terror, made us think we'd entered a new era. The simple truth we lost sight of is this: we most often quarrel with our neighbors. 

In fact, tensions aren't mounting because of cultural differences. Just look where trouble is brewing. The tensions are between China and former "tribute states". Arms control, international law, multiculturalism, cure-alls we were told.

The growing tension between China and Japan is not the result of misunderstanding -- dialouge is not the solution. 

Last Class or the End Times?

Tomorrow is my last class for the semester. I'm looking forward to the end. My brain, I think, is going to mush. Two days ago, I started working a fairy tale, a version of the Frog King. By the end of January, I hope I'll have a final draft. I was thinking of posting it on this blog, but I feel this blog is too political. Id rather not mix the two. So, I'll probably post a link up to that--just in case someone is interested.

Yesterday, here in China, the police arrested five-hundred members of a "Christian" cult. In China, the adjective "Christian" takes on peculiar qualities. These "Christians", it is reported, believe the End Times are at hand. I've always found cults and secret societies curious things. And they, along with art, seem to be the sort of thing that thrives in a closed society.

There's a book about witchcraft, soul stealers, corpse walkers, during the Qing dynasty. The Qing dynasty seemed to be plagued with cults. I'm not sure anyone has bothered writing a book about the cults and secret orders that must be, if history is any guide, operating in China as I write. I'd write it if I could, but first I have to do the Frog King justice.  

Education System

In the last three years, I've taught middle school, high school, preschool, and university. In the process of which, I've become convinced something is wrong with education. I too feel cheated out of an education. I realize my grammar is often appalling.

In fact, I don't ever recall being taught any grammar in a methodical way. In high school, I was never taught how to write a sentence, let alone an essay. And I've been the poorer for it. It is a miracle I can read. Reading is about the only thing I'm good at. And I reckon that has improved dramatically ever since I started paying attention paying attention to grammar.

On the other hand, some have been drilled to death; their creativity crushed. Why is there no happy medium? In fact, I think you'll be hard pressed to find a person that actually enjoyed their education. Or am I being pessimistic? Am I projecting?

There is no fixing the American education system. Even if it could be fixed, for many of us it's too late; self study is our doom.

The Psychology of Killing

There has been a bit of comparison between the school killings in Connecticut and Henan. I confess I haven't been paying too much attention. In any case, guns were used in Connecticut, and a knife was used in Henan.

If you've ever read Lt. Col. Grossman's On Killing, you'll know killing another human isn't something that comes easily; there are a lot of psychological barriers. Still, guns, because of the mechanical distance they place between killer and victim, making killing easier.

These two incidents seem to prove that case. No one died in the knife attacks. 26 or 28 people died in the shooting. I'm not for restricting gun rights, but widespread gun ownership and a failure to inculcate the proper virtues in youngsters is a disastrous combination. Violent video games don't help either.

Killing isn't normal yet school shootings and gun violence is becoming more and more common. Why is that? Something has changed; we can't pretend it hasn't.

HOGS to Slaughter

I'm ambivalent about the Zhongpin (HOGS) going private transaction. I'd be more keen if we were getting book value.

I live in China. Not having to deal with Chinese management is worth something, but not the haircut they're trying to give us. They better up the offer, if only to put my options in the sweet spot.

Like we've ranted about before, Chinese pork producers are inefficient. As the market consolidates, Zhongpin could find itself in a beautiful position. I'm willing to speculate on that. Looks like Xianfu Zhu is too. He'll pay us, well you the shareholders $13.50 to walk away. Book value is more like $14.50.

I'm hoping he ups his offer, but, in the end, might as well let him take it. You don't need to own shares in a Chinese pork producer to play a China angle. China imports tons of pork from America. What you ought to do is find yourself a nice, American company with some decent China exposure.

Poor Astrill

Looks like Astrill, my VPN service, is hurting. Every week they're having to reset their VPN protcols to keep the service working, but at least they're doing it.

Trade King Sucks

Up until last weekend, I was a happy Zecco customer. Zecco, however, was bought out by Trade King; so, I transferred my account. Now my money is missing. It showed up perfectly the first day. Now it's gone.

Even worse, because of the way they've transferred data, I have no way of knowing if money has simply been misplaced or if someone has stolen it.

Way to go Trade King, way to piss your customers off before they can even make a trade. I want my money back.

WTF Journalism

Maybe this is unjust, but I'm sick and tired of hearing people trying to figure out other people's intentions. Instead, look at incentives, and look at capabilities. That's what matters. Sinica suggests the Diaoyu island policy is a legacy policy, and we don't know Xi's position.

Look how coordinated Chinese ministries have been in the approach. What about history? Chinese policy towards escalating tensions with India was methodical. Same thing with Chinese planning during the Korean war.

The thing that keeps China well behaved is a trade dependency. Once oil shale in China comes on line, that dependency changes, but it will still exist; China is dependent on food imports. What are the implications of that change? Is food easier to stockpile? Can China more easily afford a flareup? In other words, does this change China's risk appetite? These are the sorts of questions that interest me.

I'm becoming more and more convinced that journalism obsesses over minutia and epiphenomena. I suppose I've spent enough time around realists to believe intentions don't mean shit. China gives me little cause to rethink this belief.

Chinese foreign policy is becoming more aggressive, and the Chinese leadership seems oblivious to the fact that this is alienating others, or they just don't give a damn. Why don't they give a damn? Are they stupid? What do they know that we don't?

I think they're being stupid. Maybe they'll wise up. But maybe we're the idiots.

Technical Difficulties

A few days ago, I think three days to be exact, China modified the Great Fire Wall. That sort of knocked The Tangential Dispatch out of operation, as we attempted to solve various VPN issues our end. We hadn't updated our VPN software in a while, and the update ended up screwing up even more stuff our end, but all is well; it's magic...

If you're looking for a VPN service, I highly recommend Astrill. I'm not sure if it's the best provider, but I've always been happy, and it really is a valuable service–even if you're not in China.

Chinese ADRs To be Delisted?

The SEC is looking into nine Chinese companies. They're demanding that their accountants turn over information. Chinese law makes this illegal. If you want to understand  the relationship between the Party and major Chinese companies, I suggest you read The Party.

The SEC won't name the 9 companies being investigated. Not that it matters. If the accountant loses there certification, then the companies they vouched for get delisted. This isn't my normal reading material, so forgive the lack of jargon. I'm not sure if all the stocks they vouch for get delisted or what.

In any case, I got out of bed because I was reading The Big Short and I wanted to take a look at some options chains. That's how I came across this bit of news.

Can China Feed It's People?

If tou look at China's balance of payments, you have cause to be opptimisitc. I've never really given a damn about trade balances. I'm not sure I understand them, but I'm certain most people don't understand them. We have, we are constantly reminded, stopped being a nation of makers, whatever that means.

 

Fine, I'll see yor nonsence and then some.

 

If you look at China's agricultural sector, and you're a physicrat, then things aren't looking pretty at all. Just look at how much soybean China imports, thirty million metric ton. Why? Because China is land poor and, evidently, soybeans are a land intensive crop. I suppose that's a tough break; you can''t help what fate gives you.

 

Fine, let's suppose we're not physiocrats. Look at China's pork production. It's inefficient. China slaughters six-hundred million pigs a year. To breed those pigs, China requires a breeding herd of fifty million. America slaughters one-hundred million pigs a year. To do so, America requires a breeding hed of six million pigs. If China's pork industry was as efficent as America's, it would only take thirty-six million pigs not fifty million.

 

China, in other words, is facing multiple challenges. First, they don't have a lot of productive land or water to work with. Second, the aren't being as productive as they could be. Why is that? I don't know the figures off the top of my head, I'll have to work with sterotypes, but only 1% of America's population works in agriculture. At least 20% of China's population works in agriculture. As China's agricultural sector consolidates, they will find savings; they will become more productive, but will that be enough?

 

Demand will be up, increasing living standards, happiness indexes, and all that sort of thing. And so I worry it won't be enough. China is doomed to importing the food it eats. But I have my own pet theory explaining why.

 

I think China's educatin system is failing it. This is just an intuition. It can explain quality control problems. It can explain the pork gap. Doubtless, it can explain many of China's woes, but is it merely a just-so story? Is there any truth to it? I can't be certain. From what I've seen of the Chinese education system, I'm not impressed. There's cheating, but that's not the problem. Education in China is about gate-keeping. I suppose the same is true in America. The difference is there's a greater change of innovators crashing through the gate in America, but perhaps that's besides the point.

 

I have this sense that China's highter education system is like Egypt's before the Sprin, but it's just a sense, a feeling. It's not all that bad though. It's not like the Soviet Union and car production.

 

 

China's Aircraft Carrier

A few weeks ago, China made its first successful landing on an aircraft carrier. This event, widely covered, has created a new fad of people mimicking the pose of two sailors on the flight deck.

These two sailors, in yellow vests, appear to be catapult or arresting gear officers, or at least that's what the colors would mean on an American aircraft carrier.

Some people are crying jingo, but I don't think this really compares to antics of London's music halls. However, on vacation a few weeks ago, I was flipping though the channels and came across a TV show. The scene involved Chinese soldiers and American soldiers playing paintball.

Of course the Chinese soldiers are triumphant. And the American soldiers, led by a hulking African American NCO, throw a tantrum.

I've been living in China for almost three years now, but I'm only just realizing how ambivalent people are towards America and Americans. America's pivot to Asia isn't going to play well in China. I suspect we're in for a rocky road ahead.

Astrill

According to Astrill, the Great Firewall of China just got an update that automatically allows it to block VPN protocols. What this means for me is that I'm stuck using it in one mode. That's a little bit problematic because it won't work with firefox.

Good News

Looks like the Democrats might start tearing each other up. Via Meadia has a post about the Democrat infighting in Rhode Island over pensions. Pension woes aren't unqiue to Rhode Island. A lot of states have serious pension problems they'll have to address.

This looks like it could be a real coalition splitter.

The Chinese Slowdown

Today Via Meadia had a post talking about the Chinese slowdown. It links to a Washington Post article. The city being discussed in Dongguan. I spent half a year living in Dongguan.

For various reasons I don't agree with the article. Dongguan has always had its empty parts. After all, Dongguan is home to the biggest mall in the world. I think less than 10% of the stores in that mall have ever been occupied. In short, Dongguan is a town full of white elephants. I'm not surprised a hotel was empty.

So I guess take issue with the "atmospherics" the Washington Post piece sets up. The economic slowdown isn't hollowing out Dongguan. Dongguan's emptiness isn't a new phenomena requiring explanation.

Crappy centralized planning in Dongguan created parts of the city never extensively occupied. That's the real problem: planning.

Second, there are plenty of factory jobs, at least as of a few months ago, for people that want them. Factories doing intricate work, say watch making, for instance, have started having problems finding trainees to replace their aging work force. I think this is partially an education/cultural problem. University graduates consider this type of work demeaning. High school graduates don't have enough training. High school graduates get pissed off at quality control regimes because often they're not good at intricate work; and most factories have pay deductions for sloppy work. This is Foxcomm's woe.

Why is this happening? Planning. Chinese schools are failing their students. China has crappy demographics. I'm optimistic though.

Shale oil is transforming America. China has even larger shale reserves. They need the energy. Developing their reserves is going to create a lot of jobs.

The Return of Fiscal Responsibility

I don't think the Republican Party's tax stance has lost us any voters. Nevertheless, I'm heartened to see some Republicans, like Saxby Chambliss, become less dogmatic on the issue.

I don't think the federal debt is our biggest problem. Our debt burden should be reduced. We should stop borrowing money to fund entitlement programs. The federal debt isn't the real problem though.

The real problem is the trillions of dollars in unfunded liabilities the states are racking up. This will result either in a cut of public service, a cut in pension benefits, increased taxes, or even worse states asking for a federal bailout.

What will that bailout cost? Doubtless the federal government will claim the states unable to govern themselves. They will make federal funds contingent on increased federal oversight. That could be the true cost of continued fiscal irresponsibility in the state houses. 

Obama Dissed

Investor Business Daily is running a piece saying Obama was dissed by Cambodia's First Lady. After some review, it seems he was. The point of contention is the level of the First Lady's hands; they're not high enough.

Countries betting against us will find themselves sorely disappointed. IBD is wrong to claim the Obama administration's policy is all show. Of course his trip is mostly symbolic; but symbolism matters. There is the TPP free trade zone in the work, continued support for internationalizing territorial disputes, and Obama did speak out for minority groups in Burma.

In another post, I wrote Obama was a disappointment. He is a disappointment. His administration's policy, however, makes sense.

Bo Xilai, The Thriller

I've been reading up on the Bo Xilai affair. What I find interesting is that his wife's cousin, Gu Junshan, has also been arrested. Gu Junshan was a Deputy Director in the General Logistics Department. I'd earlier reported that Gu Junshan was Bo Xilai's father-in-law. That is incorrect.

Still, what's interesting is Gu Junshan was arrested before the rest of them. And he was arrested by General Liu Yuan, an associate of Bo Xilai. In my theory, I imagine Bo Xilai as being Gu Junshan's patron. I don't think General Liu Yuan would have touched Gu Junshan unless he already knew Bo Xilai was weak.

Heywood died on November 14th. Lunar New Year was January 23rd. The investigation leading to  Bo Xilai's downfall starts sometime in January. The investigation is thought to be targeting Wang Lijun, Bo's police chief.  Wang Lijun cracks and blackmails Bo Xilai on January 16th. This deal only lasts until February 2nd, on that day Wang Lijun is demoted. 

That gives Beijing eight days for it to get the information about Bo Xilai and decide to arrest Gu Junshan. I find that implausible.

Instead, the investigation must have been targeting Bo Xilai all along. In short, my claim is that the Wang Lijun incident didn't trigger Bo Xilai's downfall. There was something else.

What was that something else? Heywood dies. Something found among his possession implicates Gu Junshan. The crime suspected is so great Bo Xilai's protections is worthless. They pick up Gu Junshan and work him over. He gives up his cousins. Beijing goes in for the kill, but they have to muddy the waters. They pretend to go after Wang Lijun. Success.

If I were to fictionalize it, I'd have Gu Junshan arrested first, then Heywood killed. I like the idea of Gu Junshan being found out due to shoddy field craft. And of course I'd consider changing Gu Junshan into Bo Xilai's father-in-law. 
 

Burma/Cambodia Developments

Evan Osnos wrote a decent post on Obama's Burma trip. He reports the the Chinese Propaganda Department ordered the media to downplay the visit. They've done that effectively; Ping read an article about the trip. The article said Obama's speech was so dull Clinton fell asleep.

Over at Via Meadia, there was a piece about the ASEAN statement. It has long been ASEAN's position that territorial disputes should discussed only in multilateral negotiations. This is also America's position. The Chinese dislike this; they believe territorial issues should be resolved in bilateral negotiations.

In any case, yesterday ASEAN put out a statement saying territorial disputes shouldn't be "internationalized". This came as a bit of a shock. I remember seeing the story, I think on Drudge, and thinking: how could we let this happen while Obama is there?

Turns out the statement was issued by Cambodia without clearance or consultation. ASEAN's position has not changed.

It would have been surprising had it changed. In any case, this gives us a pretty good idea Cambodia is still in China's camp. Doubtless the wooing will continue. My worry is Southeast Asian countries will attempt to freeload. Australia's budget cuts are a potential example of this. This is something we need to look out for in the next few months.  

Unaccountable Elites

Liu Xiao'ao, a first year university student majoring in Flight Attending, died a few days ago. She and five schoolmates were invited to dinner by six "teachers". How did she die?

You'd think that would be a legitimate question, but you'd be wrong. According to the university's party committee secretary, the press is just trying to cause trouble. Fair enough, no one much cares for the press.

The father and family aren't members of the press though. You'd think someone from the school would meet with the family. Nope, they can't be bothered. All the family has gotten is a phone call from the Dean. He told them to stop badgering teachers.

These administrators, these educators, are scum. Even if this was just an accident. Their treatment of the family is inexcusable.

We have this Flight Attending major at my university as well. Is this a job that requires four years of special training? Of course not. But if there is demand for such a course, so be it. I merely mention the major in order to provide context.

Those majoring in Flight Attendance are forced to dress the part--roller-bags and all. They're forced to work as wait staff at events and functions. In short, few majors are more used or abused.

People are speculating one of these "teachers" tried to force themselves on Liu Xiao'ao. She attempted to escape; she fell to her death. Now the school is trying to cover it up.

I suspect they're right. The dinner in question occurred on the school's anniversary. Just imagine, you've worked so hard; let us treat you to dinner...

You'd think the truth would out. Nope. In this country even mere university professors at a third tier institution are untouchable. It is simply disgusting. The police can't even be bothered.

We've been talking about democracy, getting rid of Maoist thought, the head of the Security Service being demoted. None of it matters at all. There is no rule of law in this country.

This situation makes that truth depressingly clear.

Sinica Podcast on Chinese Navy

A good podcast discussing the Chinese Navy and related issues.

Obama in Burma

Why is Obama such a disappointment? He can't even pronounce Aung San Suu Kyi's name. This isn't nitpicking. Instead of saying San, he repeatedly said Yan. He also decided to start calling Burma Myanmar. Not that it really matters; it's just slightly embarrassing.

Burma is a important country in Southeast Asia. It has abundant natural resources and good geography. For a long time the only country investing in Burma was China. This investment consists of one of China's oil pipelines and a large dam project. The dam project was suspended by the new government; the project never enjoyed widespread support. The pipeline is still under construction.

Now that Burmese politics has begun to thaw, America can get in the act too. We don't have to do much. Human development is the name of the game. It is something the Chinese in Burma have neglected; the Chinese government doesn't give a damn about your average Burmese peasant. That's their weakness; that's why the dam project was suspended.

By being present in Burma, we allow the Burmese to observe our conduct and contrast it with the Chinese. No doubt American soft power will shine.

There is a problem though. The Rohingya, a Muslim minority, are being targeted. They are seen as alien, illegal immigrants from Bangladesh. Their houses are being razed. Some are killed. Aung San Suu Kyi is avoiding the issue. The United States does not have that luxury.

The Last Lion

The final volume of The Last Lion, the biography of Churchill, has been released. I hear only praise for it. Definitely on my reading list, after I finish Special Providence by Walter Mead, which is very fine book indeed.

A Letter from Joseph Goebbels

I always suspected Goebbels for the Obama Girl. In this letter he professes his undying admiration for the One.

Natural Gas

T. Boone Pickens talks natural gas.

Singles Day Overload

A good sign for the Chinese economy, I suppose. So many people bought stuff that the delivery companies are swamped, which explains why the thermos hasn't arrived. More pictures over at ChinaSmack.

Taki's Fight

Not bad for a little Greek boy.

Japanese Shale Reserves

Poor Japan. Looks like they don't have any extensive shale reserves. This is good news for Russia; they'll have someone buying their oil. Will this change Russia's foreign policy? Hopefully.

Propane Fracturing

China is experiencing water shortages. Demand with water will only increase with time, especially if shale takes off. The Center for Strategic and International Studies cites a study for the International Finance Corps claiming demand in 2030 will outstrip supply by 200 bcm, this does not take into account demand for shale gas development. Half of China's water is used for agriculture. Doubtless there is room for increased efficiency.

India and China have already been introducing drip irrigation, even for rice.

Drip irrigation decreases water demand by up to 70%, while increasing productivity. China provides preferential loans and funding for this sort of irrigation improvement. 

One problem, however, is water subsidies. These subsidies seem designed to help residential users. Different rates are applied to commercial and industrial users. Reduced subsides will decrease residential demand per household, but the number of urban households is bound to increase. My data is a little dated though. So I'm hopeful water tariffs have been increased to cover more of the true costs.


Forests are another problem. There have been illogical forestry programs in China. These programs plant trees unsuitable for local conditions. Sadly I'm having trouble finding a source. This makes me think their are special water subsidies for pet projects, which wouldn't be surprising.

Other solutions to China's water woes include the South-North Water Transfer Project. Even more controversial options include the diversion of the Brahmaputra and Mekong Rivers, both originate in China.

Another solution is Propane Fracturing. This uses propane instead of water as a fracturing agent. It appears, however, to be more expensive. Although the technology is proprietary and the companies developing it are keeping their cards close to their chest.  In any case, increased efficiency in the agriculture sector is probably what we'll be seeing the most of.

Game Change: Chinese Shale Reserves

By now you'll likely know, America will achieve energy independence by 2035. America, however, is not alone. Enough shale has been found in Lancashire to power Britain for 65 years.

Good news is likely to come China's way too. We already know China has ample shale reserves. Indeed, China has the largest reserves in the world and is looking to copy America's success story.

This changes things. At present roughly 80% of Chinese oil supplies pass through the Straits of Malacca. China has always been uncomfortable with this fact. Hence its many pipeline projects.

The Malacca choke point meant China had to behave in disputes with neighbors. Vietnam, the Philippines, and India might not be the most formidable of foes, but they didn't have to be.

As Chinese shale comes online, China can afford to become more aggressive in territorial disputes. This offers a more interesting explanation for the recent dispute with Japan. Some theorize the dispute is a consequence of the leadership transition; no Chinese leader can afford to appear weak. This is a plausible explanation, but I'm beginning to doubt it, the reasons why though are a tangent for another time.

 One thing is certain though, China's shale reserves gives it increased flexibility, its multiple pipeline projects gives it even more flexibility. Countries in the region doubtless realize this; China will become more aggressive in territorial disputes.

The gloves aren't completely off though. China's economy still needs the seas for export. So what we'll see is assertiveness not ham-fisted hostility.

These developments also change things in the Middle East and Russia. The Spectator discusses these issues. 



---
What troubles is Australia's defense cuts. If my narrative is correct, this is hardly the time to pare down defense spending. This, however, makes the Trans-Pacific Partnership all the more important. We need to get countries with the region trading with one another; as a means of increasing their common interest. These countries have long been hedging their bets. Will they continue to do so? Does it matter?

Last summer there was a similar dispute between China and the Philippines. That dispute ended at the start of typhoon season. After the season the issue never got much media play. And for good reason; China can't start alienating countries in Southeast Asia. When will the Diaoyu islands be placed on the back burner? Your guess is as good as mine. Why didn't they make the Philippines dispute a bigger deal? They must of had an inkling of their shale reserves. Institutions are sticky. Someone in the foreign ministry must have put a damper on things. This probably happened at a lower level. The dispute gets kicked up a pay-grade or two. There's a thorough review. Policy is changed. Diaoyu ideal trial run in some ways; real hatred for the Japanese in country; in region? Possibly.

  

Open Season on Generals

Certainly that's the case in America. But China has also been getting into the act. General Gu Junshan, a deputy director of the General Logistics Department (second highest military organ), has been detained. That happened earlier in the year.

More interesting is the comment of a delegate at the Party Congress:

one party member to comment wryly to the Financial Times that nothing displays structural weakness like overweight generals.

The most interesting claim is that 40% of China's military budget is lost to corruption. I doubt that is so. It appears plausible though.

I live very close to a PLA Air Force base. As a military brat, I've been living near Air Force bases my whole life. And you never forget because planes are always being obnoxious overhead.

I didn't realize I was living so close to a PLA Air Force base until my father told me he'd spotted it on Google Earth. In the last three months, I've never seen more than two fighters jets up at a time. So maybe the fuel budget is being misappropriated. I doubt it though.

Looking at a Rand Report, I'm using projected figures for 2025, 44% of China's defense budget is spent on personnel. 28% is spent on Operations and Maintenance. 28% is spent on Procurement and RDT&E.

You'd need to steal half the personnel budget, a third of the operations budget, and a third of the procurement budget. I suppose stealing from the personnel budget is the easiest and least harmful.

Your guess is as good as mine as to where they're stealing the money from. Incidentally Gu Junshan, it appears, just sold off military owned land and stole homes meant for retired officers. Such actions don't diminish China's military capability.

The corruption needn't involves embezzlement from the State coffers. The PLA is a big business. Generals can enrich themselves on the business side through tax avoidance. According to Rand, in the 1990s, most employees of the People's Bank of China, the central bank, didn't even bother to pay income tax. They can also just embezzle from said companies. The money PLA Inc. made used to just for increasing troop living standards.

In short, corruption within the PLA leadership doesn't mean China's military is a paper tiger.



 

LBJ Orders Pants

Came across this video. Pretty amusing.

Neoconservatism 3.0

The fine folks at bloggingheads.tv talk about neoconservatives and the "Chinese other". I suppose they're right; Why else would I be in China?

New Leadership

Xi Jinping, as expected, has been named General-Secretary of the CCP. The Politburo standing committee includes six others.

The six other members of the standing committee are:

Li Keqiang
Zhang Dejiang
Yu Zhengsheng
Liu Yunshan
Wang Qishan
Zhang Gaoli

More details to follow.

Hu's Legacy

The 18th Party Congress is coming to an end. So I decided to swing by to Popup Chinese to listen to Sinica, a China news podcast. Of course the conversation soon turns to the question of internal party democracy. As Jeremy Goldkorn says, "Come on, let's be straight, they're not going to make any meaningful reforms to the way the place is governed at this f**king meeting." More over at Popup Chinese.

How will the Hu period be remembered? Welfare will probably be high on the list, and rightly so. 

In the coming years though, China will have to run faster and faster just to keep up. Reading the news today, I'm optimistic about the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a proposed free trade bloc encompassing nearly 700 million people. Its unwitting midwife the CCP.

Education

Tonight I decide to re-listen to a podcast by Diane Ravitch on Education. She starts by discussing the two latest fads in Education reform: accountability and choice. I've also started her book, The Death and Life of the Great American School System.

Accountability 

Accountability gave us No Child Left Behind, utopian goals, merit pay, standardized testing, and the idea of "failing schools". It has also created perverse incentives that encourage schools to focus more and more attention on the basics like reading and math.

Schools, and states, doctor their results; because the goals are unachievable. This isn't surprising. Their funding is at stake. Their livelihoods are at stake.

They'll tell poor preforming students to stay home. They'll change testing standards. That's human nature.

During the Great Leap Forward Chinese bureaucrats over reported grain reserves. Consequently Beijing continued to sell grain overseas in exchange for much needed currency, Communists don't believe in running up a debt. Millions of people died including my mother-in-law's youngest sister.

They starved. Some bureaucrats too.

Grade inflation? Doctoring test results? Not a problem--for them. But someday we as a nation will pay the price.

Worst of all, judging by the only test Diane Ravitch trusts, we've achieved limited improvements in Mathematics and no improvements in Reading.

We can't even teach the basics.

Choice

Choice is the other fad. Charter schools the hot idea. Vouchers too get mention. But only 3% of children in the public education system attend charter schools. During the national debates public education was ignored. There's no other word for it; ignored.

Even worse, charter schools aren't improving results. Our evaluation of them is distorted. When we think of charter schools, we think of inspiring stories. There are plenty of heartwarming stories to be had. These are the exceptions. Charter schools do not outperform public schools in the one test Ravitch trusts.

And it turns out vouchers aren't a viable solution either. Why? Because of legal challenges. And a lack of supply.

Plus in many states vouchers can't be used to send students to faith-based schools. This is a worse problem than you might think. Faith based schools are denied voucher money. And their students are poached.

Parents withdraw their children from faith-based schools. They send their children to secular schools.  In doing so, they become eligible for voucher money.

Conclusion

The real solution to our education woes is getting qualified teachers into the classroom. But as Arthur C. Clarke says, I paraphrase, if a teacher can be replaced with a computer, they should be replaced.

Programs like Kahn Academy come to mind. Maybe Kahn Academy can't teach everyone math, but it can teach a lot of people. That frees the teacher to focus on students requiring the most assistance. Technology isn't the answer; we still need flesh and blood teachers, but technology will play a part.

The larger point is this: we don't know the answer to our education problems. We need to experiment responsibly. Our task isn't to abolish all inequalities. We must accept the odds don't favor the poor. Our task is simply to improve the odds. Something we've been failing at for quite a while.

Look Out For Jim

Walter Russell Mead is right.

Even if he isn’t telling her security secrets, the Director of Central Intelligence should not be having an affair with a working reporter in his field of activity. That in itself is an error of judgment that merits and in all but the most exceptional of circumstances demands immediate dismissal.

Did politics play a role in waiting until after the election? Possibly.

Is this some vast conspiracy to force Petraeus out? Hopefully. But it wasn't orchestrated from the White House.

$4 Trillion in Unfunded Liabilities

Every state, except for Vermont, has to balance their budget. But Joshua Rauh explains why 92% of economists surveyed by University of Chicago agree or strongly agree some states will require federal bailouts, austerity budgets, or default. More at Russ Roberts' EconTalk.

Pretty shocking stuff.

One of the problems is unfunded healthcare benefits for state retirees.

Here's a breakdown of unfunded liabilities related to state retiree healthcare benefits (using optimistic assumptions). Click on your state to complain.

Let's start with a list of states with 0% of their liabilities funded:

Arkansas 

Connecticut 

Florida

Hawaii

Iowa

Louisiana 

Minnesota 

Mississippi

Montana

New Jersey

New York 

Oklahoma  (No major liabilities.)

Rhode Island 

South Dakota

Tennessee

Washington 

Wyoming 

The following states have funded 0.1% to 1% of their liabilities:

California (0.1%)

Illinois (0.1%)

Maryland (1%)

Pennsylvania (1%)

Texas (1%)

Vermont (0.5%)

The following states have funded between 2% to 5% of their pension liabilities: 

Alabama (5%)

Delaware (2%)

Georgia (3%)

Indiana (5%)

Kansas (2%)

Massachusetts (2%)

Michigan (2%)

Missouri (3%)

Nevada (2%)

New Hampshire (2%)

New Mexico (5%)

North Carolina (3%)

South Carolina (5%)

The following states have funded more than 5% of their liabilities:

Alaska (50%)

Arizona (69%)

Colorado (14%)

Idaho (12%)

Kentucky (15%)

Maine (6%)

North Dakota (30%)

Ohio (32%)

Oregon (31%)

Utah (22%)

Virginia (26%)

West Virginia (6%)

Wisconsin (38%)  

(No data for Nebraska.) [Pew Trust source.]

Remembrance Day as Singles Day

Today is Poppy Day, Veterans Day, Single's Day!

In China the day (literally bare sticks day) is celebrated by singles gathering for dinner to celebrate their continued singleness. Over its relatively short lifespan, it was first celebrated in 1993, it has morphed into a sort of sales day extravaganza. As you can imagine, last year's Single's Day (11.11.11) was the Single's Day rapture of almost Black Friday proportions.

It isn't all fun and games and shopping though.

Due to China's One Child policy, there are 50 million men doomed to singleness. For these men there is enormous family pressure to marry.  Pressure is not limited to just men though. Men may be in surplus, but quality is in short supply. It's snobbish to say so, I admit. But as we all know, more women graduate from university than men. Hence, for some Single's Day is devoted to speed dating. Now for the tangent.

In the United States, just glancing at the data, the assumption that more women than men are graduating from university is justified. It also seems justified for the United Kingdom. Listening to Chinese academics, you'd think something similar is occuring in China. It isn't.

In 2004, women made up 43.8 percent of undergraduate students, rising to 49.6 by 2012, according to Education Ministry figures cited by The 21st Century Business Herald. 

In master’s programs, women made up 44.1 percent of students in 2004, rising to 50.3 by 2010. Among doctoral candidates in 2010, however, just over 35.4 percent were women, up from 31.3 in 2004.

Turns out China is introducing gender quotas to keeps things "balanced".

The rules affected students like Ouyang Le, according to Ms. Xiong. A fresh graduate from a Guangzhou high school, Ms. Ouyang had wanted to study at the University of International Relations. She scored 614 points on the gaokao, but as a woman, needed 628. If Ms. Ouyang had been a man, she would have needed just 609.

Quotas are nothing new. The Qing imposed both provincial and ethnic quotas. And provinces have long reserved more places for local students. But the fairness of the gaokao, the university entrance exam, is something people care about; but protests are understandably muted.

Party Conference

It is that time again. Today Astrill, my VPN provider, sent me the following:

China issue

Dear China customers,

Due to the Chinese communist party congress, there is increased blocking of VPN protocols. This is not targeted.

The last bit is reassuring. In any case, the censor's blanket attack on VPN protocols is becoming more problematic. And I suspect it will only worsen. So, if I go off the air, you know why.

 

 

Democracy: The Dignity of the Individual

I like Rory Stewarts work. I've read both The Places In Between and The Prince of the Marshes. Both were quite good. For a TED Talk though, his presentation leaves something to be desired.

He's right though. The best argument for democracy isn't instrumental. The best argument for democracy is deontological; democracy is the only form of government that respects the dignity of the individual.

Leveson Inquiry

The Leveson Inquiry was never a good idea. Rupert Murdoch's employees broke the law. The issue isn't journalists failing to maintain professional standards. Licensing is not the solution. You don't get rid of Sweeney Todd by licensing barbers. You arrest him.

The Leveson Inquiry will likely recommend statutory regulation of journalism. This is tantamount to the reintroducing the Licensing of the Press Act 1662. In short, journalists, or some subset of journalists, will become licensed professionals.

Hugh Grant points out that doctors, dentists, and the BBC are perfectly fine with being regulated. Of course they are. Licensure decreases competition. What concerns is how licensed professions develop guild-like mentalities.

Right now Leveson's intent is to regulate only newspapers. But how long will that last? No doubt his proposed regulator will, over time, spread its tentacles.

The exact form licensure will take is uncertain. Who will be required to obtain a license: individual journalists or newspapers? I suspect newspapers. There is talk about establishing a regulatory entity for pre-vetting controversial stories.

So much for free press and enterprise. Last week's Spectator led with the issue.

A Silver Lining

We Republicans failed to capture the White House, but our democracy continues to capture hearts and minds. Two comments from the Chinese blogosphere:

From the black civil rights movement of the 60s in the 20th century to Obama being elected the first black present in the 21st century, to today, where Obama has been reelected for a second term, Americans have used only 50 years of time. On this kind of incredible ability to correct/change its society, who can still say that capitalism is decadent and degenerate? With one foot in its grave? Instead, all of those people who have said capitalism is dying have one by one passed away in history like smoke!

And

Why do Chinese people pay attention to the United States election? It’s because of media hype, because of market attention, but at the bottom of their hearts there is also a political longing. In the face of the wave of democracy, one country cannot integrate in the world economically, and stands apart from the world system politically. With only those few friends in the entire world, whether it be dying Syria or unreliable North Korea or Castro, who often faints during his speeches.

I'm happy for other reasons too. The growing consensus is China will become a democracy in the next ten or fifteen years. This actually worries me. This is also the sense I get from talking with Party members. My undergraduate students are more pessimistic.

Pays du seuil: An Insidious Idea

Reading Les Echos I came across this little gem:

Le president americain a repete qu'il ne "laisserait pas" Teheran se doter de la bombe atonmique. Sans preciser s'il tolereait que l'Iran devienne un "pays de seuil", ne possedant pas une bombe prete a l'emploi mais capable d'en assembler une en quelques semaines si necessaire.

The idea is to allow Iran to develop all the technology necessary for creating a bomb. The redline becomes assembly.

I hope this idea isn't gaining traction in American policy circles. This proposal is a mere face saving.

Does it address the problem of proliferation? If Iran is allowed to develop its nuclear weapons capacity to being weeks away from the bomb, then won't other countries in the region want a similar capacity? Or will assurances of American protection be sufficient?

At present, I suspect other countries won't be satisfied with American assurances--the British weren't. This, however, is a mere intuition of mine.

Another problem is trust. You'd have to establish reliable inspection regimes. What a bloody mess. And of course it will keep so many government and IGO functionaries busy. They'll love it. In the moment of crisis, they'll be uncertain. If the inspection regime fails, Israel, America, or a coalition of the willing will be forced to take unilateral actions. And Europe will be able to scream foul.

My greatest fear is if this idea gains traction, it will weaken Western resolve. The idea is insidious. If you assume Iran is a rational actor, it is so very pleasing. If your greatest worry is Iran's nuclear bomb being acquired by terrorists, the idea is still pleasing.

This proposal is a wedge; it challenges American/Israeli assumptions--or at least rhetoric. Iran is portrayed is irrational. And if you truly think that, then this idea is unsatisfactory. The power of the idea is that it reframes the debate; it gives Europe a way out; it give Obama a way out.

Will the President take it?

On Nanjing

My first visit to Nanjing was a little over a year ago, on a business trip. I arrived at Nanjing Railroad Station after a day and a half long journey from Chengdu. I spent the next few days suffering in a room being trained. Between these suffer sessions, mostly at night, but sometimes at lunch, I'd go out and explore Nanjing. In my few days, I managed to see some of the old city walls, walk past the Confucius Temple, and find a Burger King. In short, it proved an uneventful trip.

I went back to Nanjing Railway Station by subway and went back to Chengdu. And all that really was a shame.

This time around, things were different. For starters, instead of taking the subway, we decided to take a cab. The nice thing about Nanjing Station is it overlooks a long stretch of the old city walls and the lakes and parks, Xuan Wuhu. We'd later visit Xuan Wuhu. I have to say, it was one of the better parks I've been to in China. It was certainly the greenest. It is also large, probably larger than Beihai in Beijing, but not overwhelming.

The parks provided pleasant paths for promenading. And boating on the lake was peaceful for hour. We lingered though, and in the second hour it became something like a game of bumper cars.

The only other sight visited was Zongtongfu. This used to be the official residence of the Qing Governors. I think the complex dates back to the Ming. During the Taiping, it was occupied by the Heavenly King. During the Republic of China's stint running the country, it served as the presidential palace.

It was interesting looking at the house Zhongshan once lived in. It was rather small. In fact, it was all rather small. So much so, that it seemed the smallness of it all had been a statement of sorts, a deliberate distancing from Qing excess.

While in Nanjing, we decided to try some Duck Blood Soup. I was expecting a cup of blood. In fact, Duck Blood Soup is no different from most noodles. It just has cubes of cooked blood in it along with a helping of offal. It was delicious. It also had a very nice warming effect, which was appreciated as the day was brisk.

The trip back to Wuhu, ours was just a one night stay, was awful. Two hours standing.

In any case, we plan on making the trip again.  

Diaoyu Islands

The 18th marked the 81st, or 83rd, anniversary of Japan’s expansion into China. At the school, at least where the students live, they sounded the air raid alarms. The premier spoke. Teachers and administrators instructed students not to attend anticipated demonstrations in Wuhu. Most students listened. One of my students, however, did not.

She decided to attend the demonstration with a roommate, but they arrived late. Upon arrival they saw a Japanese car with its windows smashed in. She reported no damage to the bodywork. In her diary, she writes the protest’s organizers were using the occasion to pimp Chinese merchandise. I wonder what she means.

I picture the local plant director for Cherry, sledgehammer still in hand, entreating his compatriots to buy Chinese, as teenage girls in skimpy liveries,  hand out free samples. In any case, my student says there was a strong commercial vibe. She got the idea the organizers didn’t care about China at all. It was all a stunt to garner free publicity. She said it made her sick.

Meanwhile, in Xia’n, a man, driving in a Japanese brand car, had his head dashed in by a protester. The assailant was young, a bit pudgy, his skin untanned. I doubt he was a university student. In fact, it turns out he was likely a factory worker. Likely he was put up to it.

Over eager local officials went to a factory, gave a prep talk to some workers, and sent them out to protest. Things get out of hand; the assailant assaults a man in a Japanese car.  Things, in all likelihood, were never in hand. There are people that claim these protests were planned. I agree. But the protests also took on a life of their own.

In Shenzhen, workers smashed up Japanese cars. In Xia’n, a worker put a passenger into the hospital. In another city, a university professor slapped a elderly man for attack Chairman Hu. His exploit made the news. The success of aiguozhuyi (the idea that you must love your country) has always surprised me. In truth, I don’t know much of the history here. However, I think up until this period concern for country was always secondary. Family is what mattered. Family still is what matters, but aiguozhuyi is a useful banner.

I beat him because he was driving a Japanese car. I didn’t beat him because I envied him.

There seems very little the Party can do to resolve the Diaoyu Island issue, or any of the island disputes. But if they do nothing, if their response is considered weak, they risk becoming targets. People are already complaining about the Government’s weak response.

No doubt these disputes will be an issue for decades to come. What happens when Japan decides to develop? Worse yet, what happens when Vietnam tries to develop?

Living on Campus

I've been teaching for a two weeks now. I'm living on the old campus of Anhui Normal. It's in a built up part of town. Looking out my apartment window, I can see office buildings looming just outside the walls.  We're close to the lake. The apartment stands just up the hill from the west. I can see the neon displays of walking street from our balcony.

I imagine living here must be like living in a math. I wonder how long people will study here. Apart from the walls there is a pillbox. It seems untouched by war. For some reason, I can't imagine it being built before th 50's. The school was built on the side of a hill. The front gate looks out across the lake. The ground appears flat, but it has been rising gently since the lake-shore. It continues to rise gently until disappearing behind the main builing. Here the ground swells upwards, the grade increases. Two roads flank the mainbuilding. flanking them are basketball courts.

The hill levels off after a twenty foot climb. On this ribbon of flat earth, that wraps around the whole hill, I imagine, is an elementry school, the life sciences collegge, the international college, and teacher housing. The ribbon is intersected by roads and stairs leading still higher, but beyond this next ribbon is a sharp fall. Taking worn out stairs, you can venture into still more teacher housing. The hills begin again. The roads are flanked by buildings. At first, these are two storey brick row houses. Going deeper, the buildings become six and eight storey tenenments. High up the hill the buildings give way to shacks, forest, and darkness.

We decide to turn back for the night.

Discussing it between ourselves, we decide we've approached this hill from the other side. That side was no better. I wonder how much of the hill remains unknown to us, how long is that final stretch of road. With the trees so thick, there's no telling.

Tomorrow, first light, we'll venture back and fill in the map.

Friedman is a Joke

Friedman has offered up more sophomoric musings on China. China lacks trust, according to Friedman.

Francis Fukuyama wrote a book touching on this topic ages ago, but I suppose Friedman will want credit as co-discoverer of China's trust deficiency.

Friedman argues that China hasn't always been a low trust society. He's mistaken. Trust in China has never extended much beyond the family. In southern China clans based on fictive kinship were formed to address this problems, and the occupants of a village often would assume a single family name. Still, such extended networks of trust were always treated with suspicion.

Friedman suffers from the delusion that the private sector can create the trust necessary for innovation. I find his thesis suspect. Alibaba provides a valuable service. Innovation, however, depends on innovators being guaranteed rewards. The state can provide these rewards by offering bounties or granting monopolies through patents or copyrights. A company like Alibaba can't.

There is no easy fix.

On Shanghai

Shanghai is one of those cities most people know about. I first learned about Shanghai from the letters of C. S. Lewis to his brother. We didn't have much time, just an afternoon really, to sight see. So we walked the Bund. The Bund reminds me of Guangzhou's Shamian Island on a more massive scale except less colorful. There aren't really any buildings the color of creams. There weren't a lot of trees.

Nanjing Road, the pedestrian shopping street, was nice. It is, without contest, better than Guangzhou's and Chengdu's shopping streets. And the actual road and storefronts is better than Wangfujing in Beijing. Wangfujing is rather bland on the outside, but for actual shopping Wangfujing probably takes the prize.

A surprising thing was so many hotels not taking foreigners. We weren't on holiday so we stayed at a Chinese budget hotel chain. Turns out only two or three of the hotels were approved by the PSB to register foreigners for the night. In the end we found a hotel close to Ikea.

Shanghai struck me as a more sprawling city. More so than Guangzhou. Less so, perhaps, than Beijing. I admit though, that we didn't spend any time at all in Pudong, so I suppose we weren't really in the heart of the city.

Shanghairen are polite. The subway was better than Beijing's. Living in Xidan, a stop away from Tiananmen East, I was on Beijing's Line One. Which is rather old. And if I had to go eastwards during daytime, I was always subjected to two human waves of migrant workers and their families getting on at Tiananmen's two stops. So perhaps I'm prejudiced against Beijing's great subway.

The food in Shanghai is decent. The bookstore was nice, but I'd rank it third after Guangzhou at second and Beijing's at first. Shanghai is supposed to have a decent chain of private bookstores, as opposed to Xinhua the state run chain. I didn't get a chance to visit one of these. I'm also not sure if they have a Bookworm or not--not that Bookworms are any good as bookstores.

Still Beijing with it's state run foreign bookstore on Wangfujing, and the private bookstore in the mall around the China World Trade Center struck me as far superior. I hear it said, that most of the publishing houses limit their foreign book distribution to Shanghai. This might be the case. There were some Penguin Classics translated into Chinese. Something I hadn't seen before, but all the imported books seemed standard. They did have more Tuttle books than most. They did have copies of the Jin Ping Mei translated for sale. Something I hadn't seen before.

The taxis were efficient. One of the car models was a nice roomy VW faux SUV. Not as comfortable as Hong Kong's purpose built cabs, but the best I've seen on the mainland.

The train station was impressive. We came into the station just by the east airport. Nanjing's train station was also impressive. But I suppose that's the problem in China. The infrastructure is impressive and the private sector is treated like a ginger stepchild. Shanghai is notorious for this. More than 70% of Shanghai GDP comes from government controlled enterprises. And I got the sense that budget hotels weren't approved to register foreigners more to limit their ability to compete than my ability to stay where I damned well pleased. 

Anyways, those are my unedited thoughts on the topic.

Party Papers

Ping's Party papers have arrived. In a few days she'll be able to transfer her party membership to her new university. More importantly it means we can hit the road. Shanghai is four hours away by train and bus with a transfer in Nanjing.

But before that I've so many things to do. My own papers to organize, forms to download, bags to pack, gadgets to charge, numerous other things presently escaping memory. In two days though I'll be back in America.

It's frightening leaving China with even a minute possibility of not being allowed back. I just hope to get the blasted visa sorted this Friday.

Next post from Shanghai.

 

Chinese Toenails

Chinese toenails are today's topic.

I know that sounds mad, but here are the facts. Evidently some Chinese people claim you can tell if your Han Chinese or not by looking at your toenails. Specifically you want to look at your pinky toes.  Han Chinese, it is claimed, have two toenails on their pinky toes. This picture will help you visualize what I'm saying.

I don't quite believe this ridiculous claim, but my limited attempts at falsification have proved futile. Sure enough Ping has two toenails on both pinky toes.

In any case, now you know. 

Teuku Jacob is a Bastard

I wake up with sinodonts on the mind. So I spend a few moments examining my teeth for Chinese characteristics. I then look up what exactly sinodonts ought to look like. In the book they were described as shovel like incisors. I suppose my incisors could be shovel like, and the pictures aren't really clear. I sheepishly ask Ping if I can see her teeth for a moment.

Nonplussed she opens her mouth. I take a look, commit the incisors to memory, they're not much like mine. The internet soon provides more informative images, and I conclude I don't have sinodonts. I thought there was at least a possibility, seeing as the Acadians intermingled with the Algonquin Mi'kmaq.  But after a second examination I have little ground to stand on.

In any case, there was a link on the page discussing hobbits, homo floresiensis, and I thought why the hell not. I soon discover they're drilling their teeth for DNA. I rehearse arguments in favor of cloning them. In the process I stumble across an argument about cloning Neanderthals. Well if they deserve a second chance surely hobbits too.

I try to imagine how it must have felt to be the last hobbit. Were they really killed off by a species of giant storks? Are they really hobbits at all?

I discover Teuku Jacob, hobbit desecrator and denier. He contended hobbits were just diseased modern humans. And while carelessly conducting his hate fueled research took it upon himself to damage several hobbit specimens. To make matters worse, he then used his clout with Indonesian authorities to shut down hobbit dig sites.

Teuku Jacob is a stork.