Winter and Snow

Christmas Day comes and goes. In the morning we wake up to the sight of snow covered trees. The light dusting doesn't last long; the sun comes out and turns powder into drops. I hadn't seen snow for a year. In Beijing there was an awful amount of snow. Any amount of snow is awful in Beijing, or at least in Xidan. It just stays were it  is and gets dirty. Xidan snow is some of the dirtiest snow I've seen. Which is funny because there isn't really any dirt to be found in the center of the city.

All that grimey vileness is coming from the air. That's what makes Xidan snow so upalatable; it gives you some glimpse of what's happening to your lungs except you've been here a hell of a lot longer than that pile of snow.

It makes me think about Dreams of the Red Chamber and Waterboy. Characters in both those classics believe in different types of waters. Magic spells require more than mere water. They require water that's poperly sourced; the North Pole, the first snow, rain that fell on Tomb Sweeping day.

I find the idea cute. And then I look outside. I can think of few ways better to kill  a man than serving him tea made from Xidan snow: that patch of snow outside Joy City where the Apple Store is across from Zara's.

In Chengdu I don't think it snowed, I can't remember. Maybe I can't remember it because it was white; it doesn't stand out. Chengdu is such a clean city.

Wuhu snow is still young. If there's ever a blizzard, I want to go down to the banks of the Yangtze and it engulf the rusting hulks pressing upriver to Chongqing or downriver to Shanghai. Even then I imagine young lovers would still be standing beside the river sending Kongmingdeng up into the heavens.

Winter Holiday and Exams

Yeterday I finished my last exams. Now all I have to do is finish grading them and enter in grades. I was disappointed with the results of my current events class. I made the mistake of letting them use their dictonary during the exam. So, for some questions, I have answers taken from the dictonary word for word.

I find it stange. Sure, some of them didn't pay attention. Classes in China are pretty much pass/fail. As far as I can tell, undergraduate gpas aren't important for things like going to grad school. So the incentives really aren''t there, unless you're one of the very few students on scholarship.

Still, some of them did listen. But for some questions everyone decided to copy their answer out from the dictonary. The sad fact is they're afraid. They're afraid to write and they're afraid to listen. So, instead of taking a chance and expressing an idea in their own words, they steal the words of others. Instead of listening and forming their own understanding, they search for a ready-made interpertation.

There were only four individuals that did something unexpected on their exam. The rest of the variation came from the three different dictonaries being used. And when it came to answering factual questions and not merely defining things, they did very poorly.

These are all future students mind you. If they're too afraid think up answers that aren't in their books, they're not likely to tolerate novel answers from their students.


Anyways, some fresh thoughts for you all. Sorry for grammar and spelling. This computer hasn't any spell check unless I write in Chinese.

Japanese Politics

Well, I hadn't been following Japanese politics closely. I knew an election was in the works. I understood the Liberal Democrats were expected to be returned. Does this change Sino-Japanese relations? Those relations have always been terrible. I think we've lost sight of simple truths. Globalization, the clash of civilization, the war on terror, made us think we'd entered a new era. The simple truth we lost sight of is this: we most often quarrel with our neighbors. 

In fact, tensions aren't mounting because of cultural differences. Just look where trouble is brewing. The tensions are between China and former "tribute states". Arms control, international law, multiculturalism, cure-alls we were told.

The growing tension between China and Japan is not the result of misunderstanding -- dialouge is not the solution. 

Last Class or the End Times?

Tomorrow is my last class for the semester. I'm looking forward to the end. My brain, I think, is going to mush. Two days ago, I started working a fairy tale, a version of the Frog King. By the end of January, I hope I'll have a final draft. I was thinking of posting it on this blog, but I feel this blog is too political. Id rather not mix the two. So, I'll probably post a link up to that--just in case someone is interested.

Yesterday, here in China, the police arrested five-hundred members of a "Christian" cult. In China, the adjective "Christian" takes on peculiar qualities. These "Christians", it is reported, believe the End Times are at hand. I've always found cults and secret societies curious things. And they, along with art, seem to be the sort of thing that thrives in a closed society.

There's a book about witchcraft, soul stealers, corpse walkers, during the Qing dynasty. The Qing dynasty seemed to be plagued with cults. I'm not sure anyone has bothered writing a book about the cults and secret orders that must be, if history is any guide, operating in China as I write. I'd write it if I could, but first I have to do the Frog King justice.  

Education System

In the last three years, I've taught middle school, high school, preschool, and university. In the process of which, I've become convinced something is wrong with education. I too feel cheated out of an education. I realize my grammar is often appalling.

In fact, I don't ever recall being taught any grammar in a methodical way. In high school, I was never taught how to write a sentence, let alone an essay. And I've been the poorer for it. It is a miracle I can read. Reading is about the only thing I'm good at. And I reckon that has improved dramatically ever since I started paying attention paying attention to grammar.

On the other hand, some have been drilled to death; their creativity crushed. Why is there no happy medium? In fact, I think you'll be hard pressed to find a person that actually enjoyed their education. Or am I being pessimistic? Am I projecting?

There is no fixing the American education system. Even if it could be fixed, for many of us it's too late; self study is our doom.

The Psychology of Killing

There has been a bit of comparison between the school killings in Connecticut and Henan. I confess I haven't been paying too much attention. In any case, guns were used in Connecticut, and a knife was used in Henan.

If you've ever read Lt. Col. Grossman's On Killing, you'll know killing another human isn't something that comes easily; there are a lot of psychological barriers. Still, guns, because of the mechanical distance they place between killer and victim, making killing easier.

These two incidents seem to prove that case. No one died in the knife attacks. 26 or 28 people died in the shooting. I'm not for restricting gun rights, but widespread gun ownership and a failure to inculcate the proper virtues in youngsters is a disastrous combination. Violent video games don't help either.

Killing isn't normal yet school shootings and gun violence is becoming more and more common. Why is that? Something has changed; we can't pretend it hasn't.

HOGS to Slaughter

I'm ambivalent about the Zhongpin (HOGS) going private transaction. I'd be more keen if we were getting book value.

I live in China. Not having to deal with Chinese management is worth something, but not the haircut they're trying to give us. They better up the offer, if only to put my options in the sweet spot.

Like we've ranted about before, Chinese pork producers are inefficient. As the market consolidates, Zhongpin could find itself in a beautiful position. I'm willing to speculate on that. Looks like Xianfu Zhu is too. He'll pay us, well you the shareholders $13.50 to walk away. Book value is more like $14.50.

I'm hoping he ups his offer, but, in the end, might as well let him take it. You don't need to own shares in a Chinese pork producer to play a China angle. China imports tons of pork from America. What you ought to do is find yourself a nice, American company with some decent China exposure.

Poor Astrill

Looks like Astrill, my VPN service, is hurting. Every week they're having to reset their VPN protcols to keep the service working, but at least they're doing it.

Trade King Sucks

Up until last weekend, I was a happy Zecco customer. Zecco, however, was bought out by Trade King; so, I transferred my account. Now my money is missing. It showed up perfectly the first day. Now it's gone.

Even worse, because of the way they've transferred data, I have no way of knowing if money has simply been misplaced or if someone has stolen it.

Way to go Trade King, way to piss your customers off before they can even make a trade. I want my money back.

WTF Journalism

Maybe this is unjust, but I'm sick and tired of hearing people trying to figure out other people's intentions. Instead, look at incentives, and look at capabilities. That's what matters. Sinica suggests the Diaoyu island policy is a legacy policy, and we don't know Xi's position.

Look how coordinated Chinese ministries have been in the approach. What about history? Chinese policy towards escalating tensions with India was methodical. Same thing with Chinese planning during the Korean war.

The thing that keeps China well behaved is a trade dependency. Once oil shale in China comes on line, that dependency changes, but it will still exist; China is dependent on food imports. What are the implications of that change? Is food easier to stockpile? Can China more easily afford a flareup? In other words, does this change China's risk appetite? These are the sorts of questions that interest me.

I'm becoming more and more convinced that journalism obsesses over minutia and epiphenomena. I suppose I've spent enough time around realists to believe intentions don't mean shit. China gives me little cause to rethink this belief.

Chinese foreign policy is becoming more aggressive, and the Chinese leadership seems oblivious to the fact that this is alienating others, or they just don't give a damn. Why don't they give a damn? Are they stupid? What do they know that we don't?

I think they're being stupid. Maybe they'll wise up. But maybe we're the idiots.

Technical Difficulties

A few days ago, I think three days to be exact, China modified the Great Fire Wall. That sort of knocked The Tangential Dispatch out of operation, as we attempted to solve various VPN issues our end. We hadn't updated our VPN software in a while, and the update ended up screwing up even more stuff our end, but all is well; it's magic...

If you're looking for a VPN service, I highly recommend Astrill. I'm not sure if it's the best provider, but I've always been happy, and it really is a valuable service–even if you're not in China.

Chinese ADRs To be Delisted?

The SEC is looking into nine Chinese companies. They're demanding that their accountants turn over information. Chinese law makes this illegal. If you want to understand  the relationship between the Party and major Chinese companies, I suggest you read The Party.

The SEC won't name the 9 companies being investigated. Not that it matters. If the accountant loses there certification, then the companies they vouched for get delisted. This isn't my normal reading material, so forgive the lack of jargon. I'm not sure if all the stocks they vouch for get delisted or what.

In any case, I got out of bed because I was reading The Big Short and I wanted to take a look at some options chains. That's how I came across this bit of news.

Can China Feed It's People?

If tou look at China's balance of payments, you have cause to be opptimisitc. I've never really given a damn about trade balances. I'm not sure I understand them, but I'm certain most people don't understand them. We have, we are constantly reminded, stopped being a nation of makers, whatever that means.

 

Fine, I'll see yor nonsence and then some.

 

If you look at China's agricultural sector, and you're a physicrat, then things aren't looking pretty at all. Just look at how much soybean China imports, thirty million metric ton. Why? Because China is land poor and, evidently, soybeans are a land intensive crop. I suppose that's a tough break; you can''t help what fate gives you.

 

Fine, let's suppose we're not physiocrats. Look at China's pork production. It's inefficient. China slaughters six-hundred million pigs a year. To breed those pigs, China requires a breeding herd of fifty million. America slaughters one-hundred million pigs a year. To do so, America requires a breeding hed of six million pigs. If China's pork industry was as efficent as America's, it would only take thirty-six million pigs not fifty million.

 

China, in other words, is facing multiple challenges. First, they don't have a lot of productive land or water to work with. Second, the aren't being as productive as they could be. Why is that? I don't know the figures off the top of my head, I'll have to work with sterotypes, but only 1% of America's population works in agriculture. At least 20% of China's population works in agriculture. As China's agricultural sector consolidates, they will find savings; they will become more productive, but will that be enough?

 

Demand will be up, increasing living standards, happiness indexes, and all that sort of thing. And so I worry it won't be enough. China is doomed to importing the food it eats. But I have my own pet theory explaining why.

 

I think China's educatin system is failing it. This is just an intuition. It can explain quality control problems. It can explain the pork gap. Doubtless, it can explain many of China's woes, but is it merely a just-so story? Is there any truth to it? I can't be certain. From what I've seen of the Chinese education system, I'm not impressed. There's cheating, but that's not the problem. Education in China is about gate-keeping. I suppose the same is true in America. The difference is there's a greater change of innovators crashing through the gate in America, but perhaps that's besides the point.

 

I have this sense that China's highter education system is like Egypt's before the Sprin, but it's just a sense, a feeling. It's not all that bad though. It's not like the Soviet Union and car production.

 

 

China's Aircraft Carrier

A few weeks ago, China made its first successful landing on an aircraft carrier. This event, widely covered, has created a new fad of people mimicking the pose of two sailors on the flight deck.

These two sailors, in yellow vests, appear to be catapult or arresting gear officers, or at least that's what the colors would mean on an American aircraft carrier.

Some people are crying jingo, but I don't think this really compares to antics of London's music halls. However, on vacation a few weeks ago, I was flipping though the channels and came across a TV show. The scene involved Chinese soldiers and American soldiers playing paintball.

Of course the Chinese soldiers are triumphant. And the American soldiers, led by a hulking African American NCO, throw a tantrum.

I've been living in China for almost three years now, but I'm only just realizing how ambivalent people are towards America and Americans. America's pivot to Asia isn't going to play well in China. I suspect we're in for a rocky road ahead.

Astrill

According to Astrill, the Great Firewall of China just got an update that automatically allows it to block VPN protocols. What this means for me is that I'm stuck using it in one mode. That's a little bit problematic because it won't work with firefox.

Good News

Looks like the Democrats might start tearing each other up. Via Meadia has a post about the Democrat infighting in Rhode Island over pensions. Pension woes aren't unqiue to Rhode Island. A lot of states have serious pension problems they'll have to address.

This looks like it could be a real coalition splitter.